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The Month in Markets – September

The Month In Markets – September

September was an extremely difficult month for markets, with most asset classes witnessing sharp falls in value. The continuing story around inflation and interest rates was partly to blame, while the UK had additional pressures created by the mini-budget. 

One of the major headwinds for global assets during the month was higher than expected inflation data from the US. This has been a recurring issue for equities and bonds in 2022. Higher inflation leads to investors then pricing in higher interest rates which will be required to combat inflation, and this had negative implications for both equities and bonds.

US headline inflation came in at 8.3% for August, marginally ahead of expectations of 8.1%. However, it was the core month-on-month inflation that really spooked markets. Core inflation strips out highly volatile items such as food and energy and this accelerated by 0.6% month-on-month. This is one of the US Fed’s preferred inflation measures and led markets to immediately price in higher interest rates ahead, with the expectation that the US Fed funds rate would be 4.6% at the end of 2022.

The reaction to the inflation data was felt immediately, with US equities falling over 4%, suffering their worst individual trading day since 2020. We also saw yields on US government bonds rise sharply (prices fall).

Digging a little deeper into the data it was the shelter/rents component that was one of the biggest drivers behind the inflation data. The initial impact of higher interest rates may mean it is harder for first time buyers to get on the property ladder, which could lead to greater demand for rental properties and push rents even higher!

While US inflation data was a headwind for markets, the UK mini budget caused extreme volatility in UK bonds and currency markets. You will notice from the chart that both UK gilts (government bonds) and UK sterling corporate bonds suffered significant drawdowns in the month. These moves are far from normal, and the price action witnessed in UK government bonds has been described as a once-in-a-generation type event.

The mini budget shocked markets with much greater unfunded tax cuts than anticipated. There were two big problems with this – a huge increase in debt issuance and increasing budget deficits made the UK less creditworthy, while the tax cuts could lead to increased consumer spending and higher inflation, and therefore may warrant even higher interest rates. This was enough to send both UK government bonds and Sterling nosediving. Within 24 hours of the mini budget we witnessed sterling hit an all-time low of $1.035 against the USD (it should be noted that from here were have seen something of a mini-recovery in sterling). As the sell-off in government bonds continued, many liability-driven investment (LDI) pension funds ran into trouble. There came a breaking point where the Bank of England had to step in and provide support to the bond market, announcing they would buy an unlimited amount of long-dated UK government bonds for a finite period of time. The news was enough to reverse some of the pain that had been felt and led to a significant relief rally. Sterling corporate bonds were caught up in the mayhem, in part as they derive some of their price from government bond yields, but also because in a scramble for liquidity many LDI schemes became forced sellers of these bonds in order to meet cash calls.

The dramatic rise in government bond yields in the UK caused issues in the mortgage market. On the 27th September almost 300 mortgage deals were pulled from the market, and we have since witnessed a large increase in borrowing costs for homebuyers. Any benefits of the tax cuts for consumers will likely be wiped off in much higher mortgage payments going forward. With a deteriorating outlook for the UK consumer, domestically facing UK equities suffered the brunt of the pain.

Asset-class diversification in September was very limited, with most bond and equity markets falling. One respite came from a weakening sterling, which benefits sterling investors holding foreign assets. Within portfolios we have been increasing exposure to currencies such as the USD this year and that has been a positive contributor.

While undoubtedly difficult at the moment, the price movements we are seeing are creating longer-term opportunities. Within fixed income markets for example, we can now receive yield to maturities in excess of 4% for lending to the UK or US governments, even in shorter-maturity bonds, which typically carry much less interest rate risk. Two years ago, this yield on shorter maturity government bonds was closer to 0%.

Andy Triggs

Head of Investments, Raymond James, Barbican

Appendix

5-year performance chart

Weekly Note

The Week In Markets – 24th September – 30th September

‘’Any contrarian knows that a grim present is usually a precursor to a better future’’ – Seth Klarman. The many events that have taken place this week have certainly left a grey feeling, however, the volatility will also have potentially created investment opportunities for long-term, contrarian investors.

We start this weekly round-up addressing the elephant in the room; what has gone wrong in UK markets? Last Friday, Chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng announced a mini budget which included several tax cuts and policy reversals. He told MP’s that he intended to scrap the tax hikes previously announced by defeated Tory leadership contender Rishi Sunak, as well as controversially lowering the top income-tax rate from 45% to 40%. The total cost of this mini budget totalled £45 billion (excluding the energy cap); with assurances the money would come from the economic growth that would be generated from the tax cuts. Investors were not so sure and talks of unfunded tax cuts unsettled the markets and triggered a run on the pound, which saw sterling fall to a record low of $1.03 by Monday morning.

Stock markets responded to this with a sale of UK shares, with the FTSE 100 falling to its lowest level this year, domestic stocks bearing the brunt of the pain. The moves in equities were nothing compared to what happened in bond markets this week. It is not an exaggeration to say the behaviour of the UK gilt (government bond) market was unprecedented and something that no investor has experienced before. The UK’s 30-year gilt yield rose to 5% on Tuesday, its highest level since 2002. By Wednesday the situation was so dire that emergency intervention from the Bank of England (BoE) was required, who once again has become a buyer of UK gilts. This was seen as an essential intervention from the BoE as rising yields triggered a run-on pension funds. The intervention had an immediate effect, with a steep drop in yields on Wednesday. The volatility was so extreme that one long-dated UK inflation linked government bond rallied 124% on Wednesday alone!

Due to the volatility, it has made it difficult for banks and building societies to price mortgages and we have seen a meaningful amount of mortgage products withdrawn from the market. The mortgages that remain for homebuyers now have much higher interest rates than anytime over the last five years. This will have implications for the housing market and the UK consumer. Last week we said that the mini budget would either be bonkers or brilliant, we may already have our verdict.

US markets have seen significant volatility this week as continued hawkish commentary from the US Fed has led investors to believe their fight against inflation could send the US economy into recession. The Nasdaq sank to its lowest level of 2022 as the tech heavyweights such as Apple and Nvidia slumped more than 4%. The S&P 500 touched lows last seen in November 2020, coincidently the same time as Biden’s election victory. US employment data remains robust with the number of Americans filling for unemployment benefits falling to a 5-month low, as their labour market remains resilient despite the aggressive interest rate hikes.

Airlines were forced to cancel almost 2,000 US flights on Thursday as Hurricane Ian hit Florida’s Gulf Coast in one of the most powerful US storms in recent years. Florida is a major part of the US aviation sector as some companies such as JetBlue Airways and Southwest Arline’s typically see 40% of their daily flights land at a Florida airport.

PepsiCo have announced they have stopped making drinks such as Pepsi, 7UP and Mountain Dew in Russia following President Putin’s mobilisation call last week. It seems Putin has not given up in his pursuit of Ukraine as he called for four regions of Ukraine – Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson – to be formally annexed. The US have said they will impose further sanctions on Russia because of the staged referendums that took place to annex the cities, while the EU member states are considering an eighth round of sanctions.

There were further developments this week with European gas, with explosions reported on the Nord Stream gas pipelines. Currently there seems to be genuine confusion around who is to blame for this likely sabotage, with the rumour mill and conspiracy theories in full throttle.

By the end of the week there had been a bit of calm restored to markets. Indeed, sterling has recovered from the lows at the start of the week ($1.03 vs USD) to around $1.10 at the time of writing. Longer-dated gilt yields have also fallen significantly from Tuesday’s highs.

The calm in markets on Friday was unlikely to be felt by the new UK Prime Minister, with a survey from YouGov showing a monumental collapse in support for the Conservative Party. The YouGov poll showed that at the current time Labour would walk a general election with a staggering 498 seats, while the tory party would lose 304 seats, winning only 61. The news will no doubt increase the internal pressure the Prime Minister is facing after only three weeks in the job.

This has been a very challenging week for investors. Continued weakness in most major asset classes have meant it has been difficult to shelter from the storm in markets. Sticking to a process and avoiding knee-jerk reactions is critical at times like this. We have seen large falls, followed by large recoveries in both the GBP and UK gilts market this week. The risk is that initial, emotional reactions mean investors are not able to participate in the recovery.

Andy Triggs, Head of Investments & Nathan Amaning, Investment Analyst

Risk warning: With investing, your capital is at risk. The value of investments and the income from them can go down as well as up and you may not recover the amount of your initial investment. Certain investments carry a higher degree of risk than others and are, therefore, unsuitable for some investor

Growth plan newsletter

What the Chancellor, Kwasi Kwarteng, presented to the House of Commons on Friday was definitively not a Budget; it was ‘The Growth Plan’. The sixth chancellor since 2016 was careful to avoid the B word, despite the huge sums of spending and borrowing that he announced – greater than in most, if not any, real Budgets, let alone mini-Budgets. When the Autumn Budget proper emerges – probably in November or December it is most unlikely to contain anywhere near such a wide range of radical and costly measures as were announced on 23 September.

Weekly Note

The Week In Markets – 17th September – 23rd September

With the amount of news this week, it seems a long time ago since Monday’s bank holiday for the Queen’s funeral. Around 37.5 million UK viewers tuned in making it the biggest audience for a UK TV broadcast in history. It was a truly global affair, with an estimated 4 billion people around the world watching the state funeral.

We will begin with news hot off the press as Kwasi Kwarteng, the new Chancellor, delivered the mini budget to Parliament this morning. Naming it a mini budget could undermine the extent of the budget as it saw the biggest tax cuts since the 1980s. Key moves to outline area 1.25% rise in national insurance to be reversed, the 45p tax rate for top earners over £150,000 to be abolished, planned rises for corporation tax from 19% to 25% to be scrapped and the level at which house-buyers begin to pay stamp duty to double from £125,000 to £250,000. The Chancellor is looking to accelerate the UK economy by shaking up the supply side with reforms to regulations, boosting investment and increasing incentives to innovate, ultimately making the UK more productive. Brilliant or bonkers – time will tell. The initial reaction from UK markets showed the budget was not well received; equities fell, while yields on government bonds spiked dramatically with questions around how the tax cuts and additional spending would be financed. The 5yr gilt yield jumped up over 50bps (0.5%), the biggest daily rise on record. Sterling, already at low levels against the USD, fell by another circa 2%, falling below 1.11 – the lowest levels since 1985.  

Thursday saw the Bank of England (BoE) deliver the expected 50bps rise in interest rates, taking rates to 2.25%. Five members of the nine-person committee voted for the decision but three voted for a more aggressive 75bps rise while the newest member of the MPC voted for a softer 25bps rise. The committee argued that acting faster now could help the BoE avoid ‘a more extended and costly tightening cycle later’. UK GDP is now estimated to fall 0.1% over the third quarter of the year marking a potential second consecutive quarter of decline. This would cement fears of the UK economy falling into recession sooner rather than the predicted landing time of 2023.   

We have been speaking about the next US Fed move all summer and on Wednesday the expected 75bps rise was executed raising rates to 3.25%. US Fed Chair Jerome Powell has previously stated that achieving the much-desired soft landing would be very challenging. Hawkish commentary from the Fed Chair has led markets to price in higher rates for longer, which has led to pain in both the equity and the bond markets. The US S&P 500 is now down almost 22% for the year with mega cap technology and growth companies such as Amazon, Tesla and Nvidia falling between 1% and 5.3% for the week. US Treasury yields rose sharply, with the yield on the 10-yr Treasury note rising to over 3.75% on Friday, its highest level since 2010.

It has now been 211 days since Russia invaded Ukraine and the volume of the news covering this has seemingly quietened down, until further developments this week. President Putin ordered a partial mobilisation of Russians with military experience. The mobilisation means that military reserves will immediately be drafted into military services. However, over 1,300 Russians have been arrested for protesting, with Russian men fleeing across the border to countries such as Georgia and Finland. Despite quite sensationalist headlines over the mobilisation, markets were mainly focused on interest rate policy. That being said, we have seen further weakness in the euro, which plunged further below parity and is now at just 0.975 versus USD, a 20-year low.

It has been a tough week for investors and portfolios as equities and bonds sold off in tandem. That being said, these moments of heightened volatility and big moves often create opportunities for longer-term investors. As prices have fallen valuations of equity markets have become more attractive, while yields across the fixed income universe have risen, many to multi-year highs.

Nathan Amaning, Investment Analyst

Risk warning: With investing, your capital is at risk. The value of investments and the income from them can go down as well as up and you may not recover the amount of your initial investment. Certain investments carry a higher degree of risk than others and are, therefore, unsuitable for some investors.

Weekly Note

The Week In Markets – 10th September – 16th September

The week has been full of news, however, you’d be forgiven if you had missed it as the most covered topic this week has been the proceedings following Queen Elizabeth’s death. Queues to see the Queen’s coffin have hit five miles in length, causing a pause to new entrants.

There is a feeling of déjà vu as we once again begin the weekly round-up discussing inflation. There have been other events going on this year, including Russia invading Ukraine, but by far the biggest focus for investors has been inflation and it has been the dominant driver of asset prices this year, and this week has been no different.

The release of US inflation data sent markets into a tailspin on Tuesday. The figure of 8.3% (year-on-year) was lower than the previous two months, which may help confirm that inflation has peaked, yet it was still higher than the market expected. More importantly, month-on-month inflation remained sticky, nudging up when it was predicted to decline. Digging into the data, one of the biggest drivers of inflation is now shelter/owners equivalent rent. This represents a large portion of the inflation basket and continues to surprise to the upside with year-on-year increases of 6.3% – the highest since 1986. The market reaction to the news was extreme with the US S&P 500 suffering its worst day since June 2020. Bond yields also spiked (prices dropped) as investors priced in yet more US interest rate rises – now expected to reach 4.3% by April 2023. Volatility, particularly in equities has continued throughout the week, with recent gains earlier in September being fully eroded.

Switching to the UK, but staying with inflation, a reading of 9.9% (year-on-year) was slightly lower than expected but still extremely high. Food price inflation rose for a 13th straight month; however petrol prices fell during August, with an average drop of 14p per litre over the month. With energy prices going up in October inflation is likely to increase from here, although the recently announced energy cap should help to limit the increase. The total bill for the energy support package is estimated to be £150bn. The Bank of England is still expected to continue to raise interest rates at their next meeting, due to take place next week, after being postponed due to the Queen’s passing. Disappointing UK GDP data on Monday and weak UK retail sales on Friday resulted in sterling falling against the USD, plummeting to 37-year lows. There was a bright spot within the UK labour market with the unemployment rate falling to 3.6%, the lowest level since 1974. 

Russia President Putin met with Chinese Leader Xi Jingping on Thursday, their first face-to-face meeting since Russia invaded Ukraine. With tensions with the West elevated, this meeting took on added significance. Interestingly Putin highlighted that China may have concerns with their invasion of Ukraine.

Chinese exporters are warning of hard times to come as softer global demand is forcing them to cut workers, shift to lower quality goods and even rent out factories. Industries such as machinery parts and textiles have been hit the hardest, seeing orders dry up. Chinese exports are more vital to China than ever accounting for 30-40% of GDP growth this year, with other pillars of its economy on shaky ground (real estate). In order to support the sector export tax rebates have been expanded and regulation for the efficiency of port operations and logistics have been put into place.

In edgy market conditions such as these the long-term investor is advised to take a step back and consider the opportunity set. Some of the most uncomfortable times are when the best returns can be made. We at RJB, continue to stay committed to this process.

Andy Triggs, Head of Investments & Nathan Amaning, Investment Analyst

Risk warning: With investing, your capital is at risk. The value of investments and the income from them can go down as well as up and you may not recover the amount of your initial investment. Certain investments carry a higher degree of risk than others and are, therefore, unsuitable for some investors.

Weekly Note

The Week In Markets – 3rd September – 9th September

We at Raymond James Barbican are saddened to hear of the passing of Her Majesty, Queen Elizabeth II. The Queen was the longest ever reigning monarch in Britain and will be deeply missed. King Charles III, aged 73, is now the oldest monarch to take the crown.

It has certainly been a week of change in the UK; Tuesday saw Ms Liz Truss overcome Rishi Sunak and become the UK’s new prime minister. Ms Truss is the UK’s 56th prime minister and its third female leader.  One of her first significant acts as PM was to announce plans to tackle the energy price crisis and by Thursday it was revealed to the UK population that the average household would pay no more than £2,500 annually for its gas and electricity bills. This will be effective from the start of October and the price guarantee will last for two years. The plan is expected to cost tens of millions and will be funded by more government borrowing. Newly appointed Chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng is due to detail the plan and expected costs in his fiscal statement later this month.

News from Frankfurt also filtered out as the European Central Bank raised interest rates by 75bps to a total percentage of 1.25%. This is now a record hike designed to combat inflation that has reached double digits in many European countries. This interest hike follows the similar increase made by the US Fed, and investors now expect this move to add pressure on the Bank of England as policymakers will review the UK’s monetary policy next week. Christine Lagarde, the president of the ECB, followed this move with hawkish commentary stating the central bank was prepared to further hike rates in order to tackle rising inflation and bring it down to its 2% target.

It would not feel like a normal weekly update without mentioning the Nord Stream 1 between Russia and Germany. Last weekend the Nord Stream pipeline was unexpectedly closed for maintenance, and it was announced on Monday that the pipeline would not resume flows. Germany feel that Russia are no longer a reliable supplier and have assured domestic businesses and households that although energy rationing is likely, they have filled 85% of the storage reserves in order to survive the winter period. The Kremlin has since said the resumption of gas supplies is completely dependent on Europe lifting its economic sanctions against Russia, aiming to create discord within Europe.

Uncertainty in Europe’s markets have not stopped car manufacturer Volkswagen from listing a minority stake in Porsche for what could be one of Europe’s biggest IPO’s. With the share sale, the Porsche group would be set to regain direct influence over what used to be a family enterprise before they were forced to sell the sports-car business to VW 13 years ago. VW shares rose 3% by mid-afternoon on Tuesday, with VW hoping to yield funds that would finance ambitious plans in the electric car market and ground-breaking new digital features.

In Shanghai’s major container port of Yangshan, operations were suspended early this week as typhoon Hinnamnor approached the east China coast. This led to excessive winds and rains in China however the greatest damage was done in South Korea as the typhoon battered the southern part of the country. Approximately 12,000 houses and buildings have been destroyed, with flooded roads and landslides.

Rising inflation, Interest rates & energy crisis are just some of the issues challenging investors currently. Despite this we continue to focus on long-term opportunities, while ensuring there is sufficient diversification in portfolios to help protect against some of the known (and unknown) risks highlighted here.

Nathan Amaning | Investment Analyst, Raymond James, Barbican

Risk warning: With investing, your capital is at risk. The value of investments and the income from them can go down as well as up and you may not recover the amount of your initial investment. Certain investments carry a higher degree of risk than others and are, therefore, unsuitable for some investors.

Weekly Note

The Week In Markets – 27th August – 2nd September

Following this week’s bank holiday Monday, markets have seemingly not taken any time off. On Wednesday, Russia for a second time this year halted gas supplies via Germany’s key supply route (Nord Steam 1) raising the prospect of an incoming recession and energy rationing across Europe.

The Nord Stream 1 pipeline will be out for maintenance until Saturday 3rd September; however, it is being reported that Russia will return flows at 20% of capacity down from the 40% that was returned at the end of June. The German network regulator expects Germany to cope with the three-day stoppage as their storage tanks are currently at 83.65% capacity, not far off their 85% target ahead of the winter season. Russia has already cut supply to Bulgaria, Denmark, the Netherlands and Poland. Further restrictions would exacerbate the energy scarcity that is driving prices across Europe as wholesale prices are up almost 400% since last August. European Union energy ministers are set for an emergency meeting on 9th September to discuss a potential EU-wide energy cap.

Heading across the water to the US, last Friday’s Jackson Hole Symposium was a highly anticipated event and has certainly had a huge effect on the US Equity market this week. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell used only 8 minutes and 28 seconds of his planned 30-minute slot, stating ‘’the Fed are taking forceful and rapid steps to moderate demand, so it better aligns with supply, and to keep inflation expectations anchored. We will keep at it until confident that the job is done’’. With such hawkish commentary, it seems the FED is more than willing to risk a recession & so investor hopes of a central bank pivot were firmly crushed. This commentary fed into US equities this week with the S&P 500 down around 9% from its 16th July high. The Tech-heavy NASDAQ, which is more sensitive to FED policy has dropped nearly 11% over the same period. Mr Powell’s sharp delivery also played on European markets minds with investors now questioning the pace at which European rates will rise.

First Friday of the month sees the release of the US Non-farm Payroll jobs data. The US Economy added 315,00 jobs in August, coming in ahead of consensus, and highlighting the strength of the labour market.  

In the UK, the strikes continue to come thick and fast. Over the last few months, Rail and Tube workers have led strikes with disputes over pay and working conditions. 115,000 Royal mail workers followed suit and walked out on Wednesday 31st August. It has now been reported that thousands of BT and Openreach staff will be striking this autumn as they step up their demands for better pay. Companies are reluctant to hike wages at the high rates that are being demanded as they do not want to further fuel inflation.

China is set for another lockdown as the city of Chengdu recorded 157 new covid infections. China is the last major economy wedded to the zero-Covid policy and 21 million people are now subject to mass testing and lengthy quarantines. Entertainment venues including bars and cinemas are also certain to be shut into the winter period. This will continue to stifle China’s post pandemic economic recovery, with President Xi Jinping, who is set for his third term, continuing to pump government resources to support the business sector.

Although global news around markets continues to be lacklustre, we believe there are opportunities to be found. It is also a reminder that being diversified not only through asset class, but region and investment style is key. We will continue to maintain this thought process and are focused on the long-term strategy that can sometimes be forgotten in the short-term mist.

Nathan Amaning | Investment Analyst, Raymond James, Barbican

Risk warning: With investing, your capital is at risk. The value of investments and the income from them can go down as well as up and you may not recover the amount of your initial investment. Certain investments carry a higher degree of risk than others and are, therefore, unsuitable for some investors.

Weekly Note

The Week In Markets – 20th August – 26th August

The US Jackson Hole symposium is the markets most anticipated event of the week. Mr Jerome Powell, Fed chairman, is due to make his keynote speech today where he could give an indication of the FOMC’s next move in terms of a further 50 or 70 basis points rate hike. Given there is another US employment report and inflation print before the next Fed Meeting at the end of September, we will also hope to hear about the longer-term outlook for policy.

We are now under 2 weeks before the new Prime Minister is announced, and their first call of action will be to tackle the UK’s rising energy cap. Both candidates (Mr Sunak and Ms Truss) have refused to give any detail into exactly how they would do this until they were ‘in office’. This move has certainly heightened UK household’s concerns. This morning Ofgem announced that the average household bill will hit £3,549 from October – an eye watering rise of 80% on the current price cap and a huge blow for consumers already struggling with soaring inflation. Energy prices have fuelled rampant inflation that has now been forecast to rise in Q1 2023 to 18%.

Diving deeper into the UK market, shares of Micro Focus soared more than 90% at today’s market open after OpenText (Canadian Software Company) agreed a $6Bn deal to purchase the company. Micro Focus is a firm that has grown by acquiring mainframe computer software used by banks, retailers and airlines but OpenText believe they can ‘stabilise Micro Focus business and accelerate its cloud transition’. There has been a continual trend of foreign companies purchasing UK Tech names.

Europe faced some bad news as business activity shrank this month. Germany’s manufacturing industries are leading the decline as PMI fell to 47.6 in July. Any score below 50 indicates falling activity. The French economy also edged into negative territory at 49.8. Supply bottlenecks, consistent inflation and rising interest rates continue to drain demand for companies and their customers.

China have stepped up their efforts in economic stimulus by announcing a further 1 trillion yuan ($146BN) to lessen the impact of repeated covid lockdowns and property market crisis. It is seen that this investment will offset the previous sharp contraction in government revenue and support infrastructure growth. China’s GDP target of 5.5% is almost certainly out of reach with economists forecasting growth slowing to 3.7%.

Given tough times as such, our investment approach and portfolio construction stays consistent. We aim to ensure that there is a diverse blend of assets held in portfolios and our long-term investment time horizon also allows us to potentially look past weak data with a level of optimism for future returns.

 

Nathan Amaning | Investment Analyst, Raymond James, Barbican

Risk warning: With investing, your capital is at risk. The value of investments and the income from them can go down as well as up and you may not recover the amount of your initial investment. Certain investments carry a higher degree of risk than others and are, therefore, unsuitable for some investors.

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