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Weekly Notes

The Week In Markets – 31st January – 6th February 2026

It was a busy first week of February for both investors and central bankers. The Bank of England and the European Central Bank met this week and both left interest rates on hold, though signs suggest their respective policy paths could soon start to diverge.

Let’s begin with the Bank of England (BoE). At the previous meeting on 18 December, five policymakers outvoted four in favour of a 25bps rate cut to 3.75%. This time, the same five-to-four split held — but in favour of keeping rates unchanged. This outcome surprised markets, which had largely expected a seven‑to‑two vote to hold. Notably, Deputy Governor Sarah Breeden shifted her stance and supported a further rate cut, while Governor Bailey’s constructive remarks have boosted prospects of an interest cut at the March meeting. Overall, the tone was one of “good news”, with the Bank highlighting that inflation is projected to moderate by April, potentially creating room for additional easing. While inflation moderating and interest rate cuts are positives, the Bank of England did downgrade their growth outlook for 2026, while also raising their unemployment expectations.

The European Central Bank (ECB) kept interest rates unchanged at 2.15% for the fifth consecutive meeting, in a move that came as no surprise to markets. January’s inflation reading, released a day before the decision, eased to 1.7% and was acknowledged in the ECB’s commentary, though officials emphasised that inflation is expected to stabilise around target over the medium term. The broader eurozone economy has remained relatively resilient and stands to benefit from the gradual rollout of fiscal measures, particularly infrastructure and defence spending. This supports the view that the ECB may keep rates on hold for some time. However, policymakers also struck a cautious tone, noting that ongoing geopolitical tensions and uncertainty around global trade policy continue to pose risks to the outlook.

Novo Nordisk, the Danish pharmaceutical powerhouse, saw its shares tumble mid‑week, wiping almost $50 billion off its market capitalisation after issuing weaker‑than‑expected forecasts. The company now anticipates double‑digit declines in both profits and sales over 2026. It has also begun to lose ground to rival Eli Lilly in the US, where data shows Lilly’s obesity prescriptions gaining further traction. The outlook appears increasingly challenging for Novo, as the firm expects more competitors to enter the obesity drug market with copycat versions. It is estimated that more than 1.5 million Americans already use unofficial alternatives to branded weight‑loss medications, a figure that is likely to rise.

The US Government entered a brief shutdown over the weekend, an event that many barely noticed. For context, the previous shutdown revolved around a dispute over healthcare policy, lasting a record 43 days and costing the US economy an estimated $11 billion. While this latest shutdown is unlikely to have a comparable economic impact, it stemmed from an entirely different issue – immigration enforcement. Democrats pushed for President Trump to curb the authority of the Department of Homeland Security (DHS), which oversees federal immigration operations, and sought measures such as requiring ICE agents to wear body cameras, remove face coverings, and obtain judicial warrants. Public frustration has intensified following the second recent incident in which a US citizen was killed.

As a result of the shutdown, the release of the highly anticipated non‑farm payrolls report, normally published on the first Friday of each month, has been delayed until next Wednesday.

In Japan, attention is turning to Sunday’s election, where Prime Minister Takaichi is widely expected to secure a landslide victory. Her Liberal Democratic Party currently holds 198 seats in the lower house, but with the support of coalition partner Ishin, projections suggest they could reach 300 seats, comfortably above the 233 required for a majority. Such an outcome would give Takaichi the mandate to advance her ambitious expansionary fiscal agenda. However, this also raises concerns about the increased government bond issuance needed to fund the proposed spending, and the potential implications for monetary policy. Markets fear that the Bank of Japan may be compelled to accelerate its path of rate hikes if fiscal expansion adds to inflationary pressures.

By the close of play last Friday, silver had suffered its biggest ever one-day drawdown, falling close to 30%, with gold also falling significantly. Prices of precious metals have remained volatile this week, with big moves both up and down, with the price of silver currently around $75 an ounce, similar to where it started the week, but a long way from last Thursday’s intra-day high of $121.

It’s been a bruising week for software companies, with major concerns around their business models due to the rise of artificial intelligence. Anthropic’s Claude model is now seen as a direct threat to many software firms and data providers, and we witnessed billions of dollars of value removed from companies this week. Software companies continue to post strong earnings, but investors are worried whether this will continue, and given high starting valuations, we have seen prices correct.

The hyperscalers have also been in the news this week and again suffered weakness in share prices. Both Amazon and Alphabet (google) released results and outlined plans to significantly raise their capex plans for 2026. The market is beginning to be less forgiving on AI capex, with concerns over future returns – Amazon’s shares are down 9% in after-hours trading following their results.

The focus this week has been on the AI losers, and we have seen significant share price declines from a range of stocks. We have helped mitigate this risk through stock diversification, while exposing the portfolios to a range of assets, some of which are not linked to the AI theme. Undoubtedly the indiscriminate sell-off will create opportunities, but being selective is critical.

Nathan Amaning, Investment Analyst

Risk warning: With investing, your capital is at risk. The value of investments and the income from them can go down as well as up and you may not recover the amount of your initial investment. Certain investments carry a higher degree of risk than others and are, therefore, unsuitable for some investors.

The Week In Markets – 24th January – 30th January 2026

Heavy snowfall affected much of the central and eastern United States, while in Washington, D.C., the Federal Reserve held its first meeting of the year, keeping rates at 3.75% with ten of twelve members voting for a pause. Fed Chair Jerome Powell, now entering the final months of his tenure, expressed satisfaction with the continued resilience of the economy and noted that risks to both inflation and employment have eased.

Fed Governors Chris Waller and Stephen Miran were the two dissenters, both voting instead for a 25bps (0.25%) rate cut. The pause, however, was broadly anticipated by markets, with only two cuts priced in for the year. It is evident that the Fed is waiting for further softening in the labour market and for inflation to move decisively towards target of 2%. Much attention has also centred on the race for the next Fed Chair, and this Friday morning President Trump nominated Kevin Warsh to replace Chair Powell in May. Mr Powell offered advice to his successor: “Don’t get pulled into elected politics”.

Tesla Q4 25 results were announced on Wednesday as revenues fell 3% to$24.9bn (year-on-year). Ironically 2025 did not pan out as expected for CEO Elon Musk as he walked away from the D.O.G.E organisation and feuded with President Trump over the end of the EV tax incentives. Musk announced that the next step for Tesla would include the halt of production for the S and X models in a push towards self-driving Cybercabs and Ai enabled robots with plans to spend over $20.9bn in Capex this year alone.

Across North America, the Bank of Canada also kept interest rates unchanged at 2.25%. However, commentary following the meeting suggested that Governor Macklem remains uncertain about the next step for monetary policy, with trade tensions and geopolitical risks continuing to cloud the outlook. This uncertainty was further heightened by President Trump’s latest threat to impose a 100% tariff on Canada should it proceed with a trade agreement with China, arguing that China would use Canada as a “drop‑off point” to circumvent U.S. tariffs. Whether the threat will materialise remains anyone’s guess.

UK Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer has been on the road this week, meeting Chinese President Xi Jinping in Beijing. He is the latest in a growing line of global leaders seeking to strengthen ties with China amid continued uncertainty surrounding US policy. Following the meeting, a number of agreements were announced, including visa‑free entry for UK citizens and a reduction in tariffs on Scotch whisky from 10% to 5%. In addition, UK pharmaceutical giant AstraZeneca unveiled plans for an £11bn investment in China, focused on expanding research and development capabilities and accelerating drug discovery.

Pubs across England and Wales are also set to benefit from a 15% reduction in business rates, offering meaningful relief for the sector. The package, which will run for the next three years, will also extend to live music venues, with the prospect of broader support for hotels further down the line. Chancellor Rachel Reeves will be hoping for a warmer reception in her own local pub after a national campaign led by landlords sought to ban Labour MPs during the dispute.

Over in Japan core inflation came in at 2%, lower than expected and the lowest reading in 15 months. Elevated inflation expectations have begun to embed in Japan, so this lower reading is pleasing to see and should provide a lift to the Japanese consumer.

It has been an exceptionally volatile week within the commodities sector. Prices of precious metals rose sharply at the start of the week, many reaching new all-time highs, before a sell-off started on Thursday afternoon, accelerating on Friday. Given the rapid appreciation in prices over recent months, short-sharp pullbacks should be expected.

This week brings a close to the first month of 2026. It’s been an eventful start to the year, both within asset markets and geopolitically. In this environment we continue to focus on diversification within portfolios, with the inclusion of assets such as commodities and alternative strategies alongside more traditional equity and fixed income positions.

Nathan Amaning, Investment Analyst

Risk warning: With investing, your capital is at risk. The value of investments and the income from them can go down as well as up and you may not recover the amount of your initial investment. Certain investments carry a higher degree of risk than others and are, therefore, unsuitable for some investors.

The Week In Markets – 17th January – 23rd January 2026

Following some upbeat UK data last week, we’ve now had November’s unemployment and wage growth figures, along with December’s inflation print. Starting with inflation, it rose for the first time since July 2025 to 3.4%, driven largely by higher travel costs (airline fares) and increased tobacco prices. However, once markets looked through the details, the consensus was that there wasn’t much cause for concern.

An increase in duty on tobacco products, along with the seasonal rise in flight costs around December, pushed inflation higher. Inflation was never likely to fall in a straight line, and markets remain confident that it will continue to ease in the coming months as last year’s increases in duties and other one‑off factors drop out of the annual comparison. Markets are still pricing in two interest rate cuts this year, and that number could well increase if inflation returns to a downward trend.

November’s unemployment rate held at 5.1%, the highest level since early 2021 reflecting the “no hiring, no firing” dynamic that has characterised the UK labour market, with businesses cautious in the buildup to the autumn budget and remaining so in its aftermath.  Average earnings, both including and excluding bonuses, slowed by 0.1% in the September‑to‑November period. The Bank of England has been consistent in its view that a cooling labour market is necessary to help ease inflationary pressures.

The Bank of England Governor Bailey spoke this week and highlighted that his biggest concern to markets and the broader economy remains ongoing geopolitical risks. He stated investors would have to get comfortable discounting Trump’s unpredictable public statements as many threats were not carried out.

Crossing the English Channel into France, a country we covered extensively last year due to parliamentary turmoil this week brought another notable development. Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu announced he would invoke special constitutional powers to push the budget through parliament. Fully aware that this meant reversing his previous commitment to avoid using such powers, Mr Lecornu acknowledged that he had little choice in order to deliver a deficit‑taming budget that all parties could tolerate. He also unveiled several measures aimed at broadening support, including scrapping a planned cut to a pension tax rebate and raising a monthly income benefit for lower‑income workers by €50 for around three million households.

It is rarely a dull week with President Donald Trump, and this one was no exception. He stepped back from earlier threats to seize Greenland and impose tariffs on eight European countries which led to a relief rally in equity markets. Instead, Trump struck a more pacifying tone, suggesting that a deal could be reached regarding Greenland, where he is seeking to implement a missile‑defence system and gain access to critical minerals. Danish officials, however, reiterated that Greenland is not for sale.

Around 400 senior political leaders from across the world gathered in Davos, Switzerland, for the World Economic Forum this week. President Donald Trump used the event as an opportunity to air a range of grievances, spending more than an hour criticising Britain for not extracting oil from the North Sea, Switzerland for its trade surplus with the US, France over its pharmaceutical policies, and Canada for what he described as “ingratitude.”

These remarks coincided with his push for nations to join a US‑led “Board of Peace,” an initiative he claims is aimed at resolving global conflicts. This week has seen renewed hope for progress in a peace deal between Ukraine and Russia, with trilateral talks (including the US) currently taking place in Abu Dhabi.

The week ended on a positive footing for the UK, with strong retail sales data, alongside expectation-beating manufacturing and services PMI data.

It’s been another exceptional week for precious metals, with the gold price approaching $5,000 an ounce, while silver is just shy of $100 an ounce. These commodities continue to benefit from geopolitical risks with investors seeking real assets as an alternative to fiat currencies. Our portfolios have been positioned accordingly and have benefitted from these moves. At a portfolio level it has also been pleasing to see small and mid-cap equities begin to catch a bid – another area where we have a constructive outlook.

Nathan Amaning, Investment Analyst

Risk warning: With investing, your capital is at risk. The value of investments and the income from them can go down as well as up and you may not recover the amount of your initial investment. Certain investments carry a higher degree of risk than others and are, therefore, unsuitable for some investors.

The Week In Markets – 10th January – 16th January 2026

We start this week with some positive economic news from the UK. GDP grew 0.3% month‑on‑month in November, a welcome reversal after the declines seen in September and October, and the strongest monthly increase since June 2025. The government will hope this is evidence of the beginning of a turning point for Britain’s economy, especially following the uncertainty stirred by pre‑budget speculation.

A welcome boost to the economy came from the recovery of Jaguar Land Rover, which was hit by a major cyberattack last August. The hack forced the UK automaker to halt production across all three of its domestic factories, costing the wider economy an estimated £2 billion. With the company now back to full capacity, car manufacturing surged 25.5% — the largest monthly increase since July 2020. The services sector, which remains the cornerstone of UK growth, also outperformed expectations, rising by more than 0.3%.

Continuing the positive momentum, Bank of England policymaker Alan Taylor struck a constructive tone on Wednesday. He indicated that inflation is now expected to moderate by mid‑2026, rather than next year as previously projected. With wage growth continuing to cool, he suggested this creates the conditions for further interest‑rate cuts. Mr Taylor was also among the five Monetary Policy Committee members who voted for the most recent cut at the end of last year. Despite this, markets remain cautious, pricing in only two quarter‑point reductions over the course of 2026.

Over in the US, inflation rose 0.3% month‑on‑month in December while remaining at 2.7% year‑on‑year. The monthly increase was driven largely by a 0.4% rise in shelter costs (rents) and a 0.7% jump in food prices — the biggest monthly gain since October 2022. It is also worth noting that, due to the US government shutdown in the final months of 2025, no data was collected in October. As a result, the Bureau of Labor Statistics relied on a carry‑forward method to calculate figures, hence the reliability of the data is to be questioned. President Trump, keen to impress in his midterm election announced a series of proposals to combat the cost of living, including a cap on credit card interest rates and a ban of institutional investors purchasing single family homes. 

Over the weekend, Fed Chair Jerome Powell revealed that the Department of Justice (DoJ) had issued grand jury subpoenas to the central bank, which he described as effectively threatening a criminal indictment on the basis that the Fed had not adjusted interest rates in line with the “preferences of the President.” The announcement has intensified concerns about the future of central‑bank independence, with Powell himself questioning whether monetary policy decisions might, going forward, be shaped by political pressure or intimidation rather than economic fundamentals.

The concerns provided support for precious metals, which were further supported by increasing geopolitical tensions with Iran. Iran is currently amid the largest anti-government protests in years as uprisings spread across the country, initially fuelled in response to soaring inflation and quickly turning against political members with the intention for key government figures to flee the country. President Trump condemned the actions against protestors in Iran and announced a 25% tariff on countries that do business with Iran. This was more of a public threat as there is no official documentation for this. The concerns pushed investors toward safe‑haven assets, with gold jumping to circa $4,610 an ounce and silver crossing $90 an ounce for the first time.

Over in Japan, Prime Minister Takaichi is preparing to dissolve the lower house of parliament, paving the way for a snap election. Appointed in October, Takaichi has laid out ambitious fiscal plans focused on defence spending and reviving economic growth and is looking to capitalise on a recent surge in public support. The news initially sent the yen to an 18‑month low against the US dollar, though it later recovered following comments from Japan’s finance ministry suggesting that intervention in the currency markets was possible.

It has been a strong start to 2026, with portfolios carrying on their positive end to 2025. Exposure to precious and industrial metals has helped drive returns, an area we have been very constructive on. We are beginning to see small cap equities advance, within both the US and UK, and this has further helped portfolios. We continue to see small and mid-cap equities offering compelling value, which should be supported by positive economic growth and falling interest rates.

Nathan Amaning, Investment Analyst

Risk warning: With investing, your capital is at risk. The value of investments and the income from them can go down as well as up and you may not recover the amount of your initial investment. Certain investments carry a higher degree of risk than others and are, therefore, unsuitable for some investors.

The Week In Markets – 3rd January – 9th January 2026

Happy New Year, and welcome to the first weekly update of 2026. The year began with extraordinary news from the United States: early Saturday morning, President Trump announced that US forces had captured Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro and his wife. To dispel any doubts, he shared a photo of Maduro captured on his Truth Social account, confirming the announcement was no joke.

Maduro was captured by US forces after being accused of overseeing a drug-trafficking network in collaboration with cartels. He also faces criminal charges of narco-terrorism and possession of machine guns and destructive devices. You might wonder whether it’s legal for the US to seize the president of another country. Washington argues that Maduro has been an illegitimate dictator since his disputed 2018 victory, which they claim was rigged and undemocratic. Beyond the legal debate, markets are focused on the bigger picture: Trump’s interest in Venezuela’s vast oil reserves. The country holds nearly one-fifth of the world’s proven reserves—larger than Saudi Arabia—yet production remains limited to about one million barrels per day. This shortfall stems from Venezuela’s ultra-heavy crude, which requires dilution and specialised processing facilities. The nation lacks the infrastructure to sustain this, compounded by US sanctions on the diluent needed for refining.

Trump has asserted that the US now has full control of Venezuela’s oil reserves and announced that American oil companies will return to rebuild the sector’s infrastructure, a project expected to take around 18 months. Despite the thrilling nature of the operation, markets largely shrugged it off, treating it as a non-event. Given Venezuela’s oil production accounts for only around 1% of daily global production, alongside an oil market that appears oversupplied in the short-term, oil markets barely moved on the news.

This year, the US Federal Reserve will see a leadership change as Chair Jerome Powell’s eight-year term ends in May. The leading contenders to succeed him are former Fed governor Kevin Warsh and National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett—both with personal ties to President Trump, raising concerns about the Fed’s independence. Meanwhile, Fed governor Mr Miran, whose term concludes this month, has been vocal about last year’s lack of rate cuts. He continues to advocate for aggressive easing, stating that ‘well over 100 basis points of cuts is justified,’ based on his expectation that inflation will settle around 2.3% over the medium term. He is of course, another Trump appointment.

Staying with the US, Trump was again in the news as he called for US military spending to increase more than 50% to $1.5 trillion a year, citing the need for more defence spending in “these very troubled and dangerous times”. The announcement was good news for defence stocks, both in the US, but also globally, with stocks such as Babcock and BAE Systems rallying here in the UK. Defence stocks, after being unloved for many years, have rose to prominence over the last four years, delivering stellar returns.

Fresh this afternoon, US nonfarm payroll data for December showed 50,000 jobs were created, while unemployment eased to 4.4%. Both figures were broadly in line with market expectations as job growth continues to slow amid a ‘no hire, no fire’ environment driven by economic uncertainty. It’s worth noting that the Bureau of Labor Statistics, which compiles these figures, has faced staffing reductions, raising concerns about the precision of some measures.

Eurozone inflation eased back to 2% in December, aligning with the ECB’s target and market expectations. The European Central Bank, which kept rates on hold at its final meeting of last year and refrained from offering forward guidance, cited caution amid an uncertain market environment. Questions persist over the impact of US tariffs and ongoing geopolitical tensions. Meanwhile, Germany announced a significant increase in spending on defence and infrastructure last year, though implementation has been slow. The monetary spend is expected to gain momentum this year, though any boost to growth will likely appear with a lag in the data.

Here in the UK reports have surfaced that mining firms Glencore and Rio Tinto have restarted discussions around a mega-merger that would create the world’s largest mining company. This comes almost a year after failed merger attempts between the two companies. Commodity pricing remains firm, with strong performance to start the year, particularly from metals such as copper. Our portfolios have been skewed towards a range of different commodities and that helped drive performance in 2025.

2026 has continued where 2025 left off, with alarming geo-political news flow largely being discounted by markets. Leadership, and laggards remain the same, with strong early performance coming from emerging markets and commodities, while the typical quality, defensive companies continue to lag.

Nathan Amaning, Investment Analyst

Risk warning: With investing, your capital is at risk. The value of investments and the income from them can go down as well as up and you may not recover the amount of your initial investment. Certain investments carry a higher degree of risk than others and are, therefore, unsuitable for some investors.

Maduro was captured by U.S. forces after being accused of overseeing a drug-trafficking network in collaboration with cartels. He also faces criminal charges of narco-terrorism and possession of machine guns and destructive devices. You might wonder whether it’s legal for the U.S. to seize the president of another country. Washington argues that Maduro has been an illegitimate dictator since his disputed 2018 victory, which they claim was rigged and undemocratic. Beyond the legal debate, markets are focused on the bigger picture: Trump’s interest in Venezuela’s vast oil reserves. The country holds nearly one-fifth of the world’s proven reserves—larger than Saudi Arabia—yet production remains limited to about one million barrels per day. This shortfall stems from Venezuela’s ultra-heavy crude, which requires dilution and specialised processing facilities. The nation lacks the infrastructure to sustain this, compounded by U.S. sanctions on the diluent needed for refining.

Trump has asserted that the U.S. now has full control of Venezuela’s oil reserves and announced that American oil companies will return to rebuild the sector’s infrastructure, a project expected to take around 18 months. Despite the thrilling nature of the operation, markets largely shrugged it off, treating it as a non-event. Given Venezuela’s oil production accounts for only around 1% of daily global production, alongside an oil market that appears oversupplied in the short-term, oil markets barely moved on the news.

This year, the U.S. Federal Reserve will see a leadership change as Chair Jerome Powell’s eight-year term ends in May. The leading contenders to succeed him are former Fed governor Kevin Warsh and National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett—both with personal ties to President Trump, raising concerns about the Fed’s independence. Meanwhile, Fed governor Mr Miran, whose term concludes this month, has been vocal about last year’s lack of rate cuts. He continues to advocate for aggressive easing, stating that ‘well over 100 basis points of cuts is justified,’ based on his expectation that inflation will settle around 2.3% over the medium term. He is of course, another Trump appointment.

Staying with the US, Trump was again in the news as he called for US military spending to increase more than 50% to $1.5 trillion a year, citing the need for more defence spending in “these very troubled and dangerous times”. The announcement was good news for defence stocks, both in the US, but also globally, with stocks such as Babcock and BAE Systems rallying here in the UK. Defence stocks, after being unloved for many years, have rose to prominence over the last four years, delivering stellar returns.

Fresh this afternoon, U.S. nonfarm payroll data for December showed 50,000 jobs were created, while unemployment eased to 4.4%. Both figures were broadly in line with market expectations as job growth continues to slow amid a ‘no hire, no fire’ environment driven by economic uncertainty. It’s worth noting that the Bureau of Labor Statistics, which compiles these figures, has faced staffing reductions, raising concerns about the precision of some measures.

Eurozone inflation eased back to 2% in December, aligning with the ECB’s target and market expectations. The European Central Bank, which kept rates on hold at its final meeting of last year and refrained from offering forward guidance, cited caution amid an uncertain market environment. Questions persist over the impact of U.S. tariffs and ongoing geopolitical tensions. Meanwhile, Germany announced a significant increase in spending on defence and infrastructure last year, though implementation has been slow. The monetary spend is expected to gain momentum this year, though any boost to growth will likely appear with a lag in the data.

Here in the UK reports have surfaced that mining firms Glencore and Rio Tinto have restarted discussions around a mega-merger that would create the world’s largest mining company. This comes almost a year after failed merger attempts between the two companies. Commodity pricing remains firm, with strong performance to start the year, particularly from metals such as copper. Our portfolios have been skewed towards a range of different commodities and that helped drive performance in 2025.

2026 has continued where 2025 left off, with alarming geo-political news flow largely being discounted by markets. Leadership, and laggards remain the same, with strong early performance coming from emerging markets and commodities, while the typical quality, defensive companies continue to lag.

Nathan Amaning, Investment Analyst

Risk warning: With investing, your capital is at risk. The value of investments and the income from them can go down as well as up and you may not recover the amount of your initial investment. Certain investments carry a higher degree of risk than others and are, therefore, unsuitable for some investors.

The Week In Markets – 13th December – 19th December 2025

It has been a busy final week before Christmas with a flurry of data releases in addition to the Bank of England (BoE) and European Central Bank (ECB) holding their final meetings of the year. The BoE delivered a 25bps rate cut, though the decision was divided, with five of nine policymakers voting in favour of a cut. Meanwhile, Eurozone inflation held steady at 2.1%, giving ECB policymakers room to maintain their pause.

Looking back to the start of the week, UK unemployment rose to 5.1% in October, the highest level since March 2021, underscoring continued weakness in the labour market. Wage growth (excluding bonuses) in the three months to October slowed to 4.6%. The gradual increase in unemployment will be something the BoE needs to monitor and if we see a further deterioration in labour markets it could lead to further interest rate cuts.

On the day before the BoE meeting, UK inflation for November delivered a notable surprise. After October’s reading of 3.6%, November’s figure fell to 3.2%, below market expectations of 3.5%, the lowest level since its reacceleration in March. According to the Office for National Statistics (ONS), the decline was driven largely by food prices, particularly cakes, biscuits, confectionery and non-alcoholic beverages, which dropped 50bps to 4.2%. This is significantly lower than the 5.3% level previously estimated for December. UK equity markets responded positively, with the FTSE 100 rising 1.2% on the day.

This leads us nicely onto Thursday as in the afternoon, the BoE cut rates by 25bps to 3.75%. As mentioned in the beginning of the weekly, the vote was split five to four in favour of a cut. Governor Bailey changed course from the previous meeting, supporting a cut this time, but cautioned that the pace of cuts would slow, signalling no further moves are planned at the start of 2026. Despite inflation surprising to the downside, it still remains comfortably above target, with certain BoE members concerned about risks of sticky inflation. The market is only pricing in 1-2 cuts in 2026. Given weak economic growth and softening labour markets we can see potential for increased cuts next year.

The European Central Bank also met on Thursday and as expected, held rates at 2.15% for the fourth consecutive meeting. Inflation remains close to target, hovering at 2.1% in November. The ECB will take comfort from revised growth projections, supported by a widening current account surplus as European companies have successfully navigated US tariffs so far. President Christine Lagarde emphasised that the decision to pause was unanimous among policymakers but declined to provide forward guidance, citing caution amid an uncertain market environment.

Turning to the US, November’s CPI came in at 2.7%, marking a meaningful drop from September’s 3%, as October’s figure failed to be collated. October’s Non-Farm Payrolls showed the economy shed 105,000 jobs, the largest decline since December 2020, driven by a sharp reduction in federal employment during the government shutdown. However, November saw a rebound with 64,000 jobs added. Unemployment ticked up to 4.6%, though the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) acknowledged that lower-than-usual survey response rates may have introduced errors into the calculation.

Following the Federal Reserve’s final meeting of the year last week, Chair Jerome Powell noted that policymakers would need to view delayed economic data “with a somewhat sceptical eye”. However, the underlying trends remain clear – the labour market continues to weaken, consumer spending is being driven by higher-income households, and inflation remains elevated.

From a headline perspective 2025 has felt like a very challenging year, with a wide range of geopolitical and structural issues bubbling away. Despite this, equities have delivered outsized returns, alongside bumper returns from precious metals. We have been delighted not only by the total return of the portfolios this year, but also the risk-adjusted returns, with strong downside protection in the first quarter of the year, when Trump tariffs sent equities into a tailspin.

This will be the final weekly round-up of the year. We hope you have enjoyed reading them and we would like to thank everyone for their continued support, which we hugely appreciate and do not take for granted. Wishing you all a wonderful festive season, from the team at Raymond James, Barbican.

Nathan Amaning, Investment Analyst

Risk warning: With investing, your capital is at risk. The value of investments and the income from them can go down as well as up and you may not recover the amount of your initial investment. Certain investments carry a higher degree of risk than others and are, therefore, unsuitable for some investors.

The Week In Markets – 6th December – 12th December 2025

This week marked the US Federal Reserve’s final meeting of the year, where policymakers voted to cut interest rates by 25 basis points (0.25%) to 3.75%, in line with market expectations. As anticipated, the decision was not unanimous: three members dissented—two favouring a pause and Fed Governor Miran advocating for a deeper 50bps cut—a display of the ongoing division within the committee.

Decision-making within the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) remains a critical responsibility, and policymakers likely felt underprepared heading into this meeting due to delayed economic data still lagging from the 43-day government shutdown. Fed Chair Powell noted that the policy rate is broadly within estimates of its neutral level, emphasising that the Committee is well positioned to assess how the economy evolves. This includes gaining greater clarity on a labour market showing signs of softening and managing persistently elevated inflation. While a pause is expected at January’s meeting, new projections indicate that the median policymaker anticipates just one 25bps (0.25%) rate cut in 2026. Following the latest cut, the Russell 2000 significantly outperformed the S&P 500 and Nasdaq, reaching record highs.

Oracle’s quarterly forecast for sales and profits fell short of analyst expectations, triggering a 15% share price drop and wiping out $80 billion in market capitalisation. The company has benefited from the surge in artificial intelligence (AI) adoption, with ambitious plans to expand its AI cloud data centres. However, this growth has brought heightened scrutiny of results, similar to Nvidia, as weaker-than-expected performance raises questions about whether AI is a bubble and the sustainability of its momentum. Management also announced that capital expenditure is expected to be $15 billion higher than the $35 billion projected in September. The biggest concern now is that Oracle is financing this expansion through debt, with long-term borrowings rising by 25% over the past year to just under $1 billion.

In Canada, the Bank of Canada (BoC) kept interest rates unchanged in its final decision of the year, with Governor Tiff Macklem signalling that policy is likely at its terminal level to manage inflation, which spiked over the summer – and to support the economic outlook. The BoC has delivered four rate cuts this year, bringing the benchmark rate down to 2.25%, a three-year low. This move strengthened the Canadian dollar, pushing it to a two-and-a-half-month high against the US dollar.

UK GDP figures released on Friday showed the economy contracted by -0.1% in the three months to October, worse than market expectations for a flat reading. The data highlights the loss of momentum in the economy, overcast by the gloom of Chancellor Reeves’ Autumn Budget in November. October’s monthly GDP also fell by -0.1%, and startlingly if you look back at GDP over the course of the year, the economy has failed to grow since June. Attention now turns to the Bank of England’s final meeting of the year next Thursday, where, following a string of weak data, markets are pricing in a 90% probability of a 25bps rate cut.

To end on a positive note, Cisco Systems, once the darling of the dot-com boom in the late 1990s has achieved a major milestone. At the time, Cisco was the leading provider of internet infrastructure equipment, but its valuation collapsed by over 80% after peaking in March 2000 when the bubble burst. Fast forward to Wednesday, and Cisco has finally surpassed its dot-com peak, with shares climbing above $80.25, up 35% year-to-date. The company has positioned itself to capitalise on the AI boom, securing $1.3 billion in orders from hyperscalers, and delivered results that beat analyst expectations for both revenue and net income.

Nathan Amaning, Investment Analyst

Risk warning: With investing, your capital is at risk. The value of investments and the income from them can go down as well as up and you may not recover the amount of your initial investment. Certain investments carry a higher degree of risk than others and are, therefore, unsuitable for some investors.

The Week In Markets – 29th November – 5th December 2025

We have now entered the final month of the year and, despite being just 20 days away from Christmas the festive spirit has not quite yet hit markets. This week, the fallout from the UK’s autumn budget continues, marked by the resignation of the Chairman of the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) after a critical error led to the budget being published early.

The Bank of England (BoE) is set to meet for the final time this month, and markets are largely pricing in a 25bps (0.25%) rate cut. This expectation follows the autumn budget and October’s inflation reading, which fell to 3.6%, reinforcing the view that price pressures have peaked. However, it’s worth noting the narrow 5–4 split at the previous meeting, where rates were held. This week, policymaker Megan Greene emphasised that she needs clear evidence of a weakening labour market and slowing consumption before supporting a cut. Ahead of the BoE decision, upcoming labour market and inflation data could prove decisive in tipping the balance.

On Tuesday, Eurozone inflation came in at 2.2% for November, a slight uptick from October’s 2.1%. Core inflation, which excludes food and energy, held steady at 2.4%. Since mid-2024, the European Central Bank (ECB) has delivered eight rate cuts, halving rates from 4% to 2%, before pausing for the past three meetings. These cuts were driven by inflation falling faster than in other economies, alongside trade tensions and geopolitical uncertainty weighing on growth. Markets expect the ECB to maintain its pause at the final meeting of the year, though the risk of a reflationary trend remains one to watch.

In Japan, political and monetary battles have dominated recent months, culminating in Takaichi becoming the leader of the LDP and the country’s first female prime minister. This week, Bank of Japan (BoJ) Governor Ueda won his battle securing support for a December rate hike, persuading Takaichi of the need for action. Inflation has picked up, rising to 3% in October, while the yen has remained weak throughout the year, key factors in Ueda’s case. Markets now see near certainty of a 25bps (0.25%) increase, taking rates to 0.75%, a level not seen in three decades. Takaichi, a known advocate of Abenomics will recognise that Japan face different market conditions, and Finance Minister Katayama confirmed alignment with Ueda’s stance—a positive sign that the government will not stand in the way.

US data is still being drip fed through to markets as a result of the government shutdown, and as such there is no release of Non-Farm Payrolls data today. However, the ADP non-farm employment change data was released on Wednesday and showed weakness, surprising markets and actually contracting. This further supports the narrative of a weakening US labour market and boosts the probability of an interest rate cut this month, with a small probability of an additional cut in January. US small cap equities responded positively to the prospect of lower interest rates and have enjoyed a positive week.

On Friday it was revealed that Netflix had won the race to acquire Warner Bros studios in a blockbuster deal valued at $83bn. The deal will see Netflix supercharge its library with the rights to the Harry Potter franchise and Game of Thrones, amongst many other timeless classics and modern series.

After a period of weakness, silver has made new all-time highs, approaching $60 an ounce. We have also witnessed gold rebound following a pullback in November. It’s not only precious metals that are rising, with the copper price advancing throughout the week. Demand for copper is expected to be robust over the coming years, through the build out of both data centres and the grid, while supply is forecast to be very constrained over the medium to long term due to a lack of investment in new mines.

Equity markets were mixed this week, with Japan’s Nikkei 225 leading the way, rising 2.3% on the back of tech strength and optimism ahead of a Bank of Japan rate hike. The UK’s FTSE 100 and both US indices were broadly flat. The much-anticipated Santa rally has yet to materialise, though expectations of rate cuts from the U.S. Federal Reserve and the Bank of England later this month could provide the spark for the seasonal upswing.

Nathan Amaning, Investment Analyst

Risk warning: With investing, your capital is at risk. The value of investments and the income from them can go down as well as up and you may not recover the amount of your initial investment. Certain investments carry a higher degree of risk than others and are, therefore, unsuitable for some investors.


The Week In Markets – 22nd November – 28th November 2025

On Wednesday, 26th November, markets finally saw the long-anticipated UK Autumn Budget—a key event that had been surrounded by a sense of uncertainty. The budget introduced 88 measures in total, with several notable changes: income tax and national insurance thresholds will remain frozen for three years from 2028; both basic and higher property tax rates will rise by 2%; the national living wage will increase by 50p; and a new duty of 3p per mile will apply to electric vehicles.

An hour before the budget was due to be announced in the House of Commons, it was unexpectedly leaked on the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) website, sparking anger across Parliament. In the run-up to the announcement, speculation was rife as many attempted to predict which direction Chancellor Reeves would take. According to the OBR’s report, growth is projected to rise by 1.5% this year, higher than initial forecasts, though the outlook from 2026 has been downgraded, painting a bleaker picture. Inflation is also expected to run hotter than previously anticipated.

Chancellor Reeves emphasised “choices” as the central theme of her budget. Key decisions included avoiding austerity while focusing on tax adjustments, reducing NHS waiting lists, and easing the cost of living. The absence of highly controversial measures appeared to reassure markets, as reflected in muted bond market reactions and a strong close for UK equities: the FTSE 100 rose 0.85%, while the FTSE 250 mid-cap index gained 1.1%, a positive reflection for domestically focused stocks.

Remaining in Europe, ECB policymaker Mr Kazaks shared his outlook on the future rate path. The ECB has held interest rates steady for three consecutive meetings, satisfied with inflation hovering near the 2% target despite concerns of reacceleration linked to US tariffs. Kazaks reiterated that now is not the time to cut rates, citing resilient economic growth supported by government spending across the region. However, he warned of a “fragile equilibrium,” with downside risks stemming from geopolitical tensions and trade policies that continue to weigh on exports and manufacturing.

In the US, economic data releases remain delayed following the longest government shutdown in history. September retail sales rose by 0.2%, signalling a modest slowdown in consumer spending after a strong summer. Part of the increase was driven by higher prices, with petrol station receipts up 2%. Conversely, sales of sporting goods and hobbies fell sharply, down 2.5% month-on-month. A key takeaway is that spending was concentrated among higher-income households, while middle and lower-income consumers adopted a more cautious approach. This divergence underscores a K-shaped economy, where wealth inequality continues to widen and benefits remain concentrated among the wealthy.

Reducing the labour force within the US Government was a task handed to the newly created Department of Government Efficiency (D.O.G.E) at the beginning of the year, led by Elon Musk, X owner and Tesla CEO. Musk lasted just five months in the role before a feud with the US President prompted his departure, and it was announced this week that the department has been terminated. D.O.G.E had made bold claims of cutting tens of billions of dollars in waste and fraud, but these assertions remain unverifiable as no public accounting of its work was ever released.

On Tuesday, HP announced plans to cut approximately 4,000 to 6,000 jobs globally by 2028 as part of a broader strategy to integrate artificial intelligence (AI) into product development and boost productivity. CEO Enrique Lores stated that the initiative is expected to “create $1 billion in gross run-rate savings” over the next three years. HP shares rose more than 5.5% for the week following the news, though they remain down 26% year-to-date.

This week saw markets regain ground after weakness for much of November. The gains were widespread – global equities, government bonds and precious metals all rallied. Within government bonds we saw the headline yield on the 10-year US treasury bond dip below 4%, while UK government bond assets have rallied in both the run up to and subsequent days of the budget. Next week ushers in December, with investors hoping the fabled Santa Rally can help propel equities to new highs.

Nathan Amaning, Investment Analyst

Risk warning:  With investing, your capital is at risk. The value of investments and the income from them can go down as well as up and you may not recover the amount of your initial investment. Certain investments carry a higher degree of risk than others and are, therefore, unsuitable for some investors.

The Week In Markets – 15th November – 21st November 2025

But for the US government shutdown, this first paragraph should have been written 49 days ago! On Thursday – nearly seven weeks later than scheduled – key US employment data for the month of September was released. The Non-Farm Payrolls data showed 119,000 jobs were added during the month, beating expectations. However, the unemployment rate nudged up to 4.4%, while August’s jobs figure was revised lower, leading to a negative print for the month.

Staying with the US, all eyes were on the world’s largest company, Nvidia, who released their latest results on Wednesday evening. Their results seemed extremely positive, beating all forecasts and providing positive guidance going forward. At the market open yesterday, US equities rallied strongly, however, they then suffered an intra-day reversal and ended heavily in the red. It was the biggest intra-day reversal we have witnessed since April. Rumblings of an Artificial Intelligence (AI) bubble continue to brew, and weren’t helped by comments from Google CEO, Sundar Pichai, who acknowledged AI models were “prone to error” and that, while the growth in AI investment had been an “extraordinary moment”, there was some “irrationality” in the current AI boom.

Here in the UK, we are less than a week away from the Autumn Budget, and data released this week provided mixed messages around the state of the economy. It was pleasing to see inflation fall from 3.8% to 3.6%, and this should give the Bank of England (BoE) more scope to cut rates at their December meeting. Digging into inflation a little deeper, food inflation shot up to 4.9%, while sticky services inflation fell further than expected to 4.5%.

UK retail sales were released this morning and showed sales fell 1.1% on a month-on-month basis. Alongside this data, UK government borrowing for the month of October was also released and showed public sector net borrowing was higher than anticipated. They were rumours Reeves pushed back this budget to late in November in the hope that economic data would meaningfully improve – today’s data does not support that.

While equities have had a tough end to the week, it’s been pleasing to see government bonds rally, providing a level of diversification to equities. Over recent years, government bonds haven’t always exhibited this negative correlation with equities; however, in a slowing growth and falling inflation environment, we believe they once again have the potential to act as a diversifier to equities.

Alongside equities, it has been a tough week – and indeed month – for bitcoin. The cryptocurrency is now off over 30% from its high in early October.

On a more positive note, there appears to be progress towards some form of peace deal between Ukraine and Russia. US and Russian officials have drafted plans to end the war, and while Ukraine’s input into these discussions is unclear, President Zelensky has said he is ready to work with the US on “their vision” in order to end the conflict.

Volatility has returned to equity markets, with weakness across the globe this week. However, when one zooms out, the year has been extremely strong for risk assets, with many markets only just shy of all-time highs. With further rate cuts around the corner and the expectation of positive global growth and cooling inflation, there remain reasons to be positive. Our approach remains one of diversification, both at an asset class and geographical standpoint.

Andy Triggs, Head of Investments

Risk warning:  With investing, your capital is at risk. The value of investments and the income from them can go down as well as up and you may not recover the amount of your initial investment. Certain investments carry a higher degree of risk than others and are, therefore, unsuitable for some investors.

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