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The Week In Markets – 13th July- 19th July 2024

A busy week in markets was made even busier by the news over the weekend regarding the attempted assassination of Donald Trump. The incident appeared to galvanise the Republican party and have increased Trump’s chances of returning to the White House. President Biden has recently been taken ill with COVID and there are rumours circulating that he may imminently drop out and be replaced as the Democrat candidate.

Taylor Swift and Burna Boy are musicians that have come to the UK over the month of June and have been cited as reasons for UK inflation coming in slightly higher than expected. The concerts have boosted demand for hotels and restaurants, leading to an increase in prices. For the restaurants and hotels and of course the Swifties there is more good news – Taylor Swift will be in London in August!

Markets had been optimistic about the UK’s inflation print for June with 1.9% forecasted, however headline inflation remained at 2%. Core inflation (excludes food and energy prices) was unchanged at 3.5%. With the Bank of England’s (BoE) target rate set at 2%, inflation is now in line with target, however investors have reduced bets on the BoE cutting interest rates in their August meeting. Services inflation is a key component that the monetary policy committee members are keen to see fall, and it also remained strong at 5.7%, despite market forecasts of a slight fall to 5.6%.

Later in the week, UK unemployment for May stayed firm at 4.4%, however wage growth for May (including bonuses) fell slightly to 5.7%, in line with market expectations. The BoE have spoken and want to see wages moderate, and the labour market continue to cool before they entertain an interest rate cut and it seems May’s figures were not significant enough to sway this vote.

We’ve had a busy week on the inflation front as the Eurozone figures for June were finalised. Core inflation (year-on-year) was unmoved at 2.9% and headline inflation slightly dropped to 2.5%. The Eurozone’s road to the 2% target could take some time, with investors not expecting it to be reached until late 2025.   

Following the inflation data, the European Central Bank (ECB) met for the fifth time this year and the conclusion of the meeting was no surprise to markets, interest rates were held firm at 4.25%. The ECB cut rates by 25bps in the June meeting and the bank seem to be cautious on making any “rushed” decisions given the stalling disinflation. “What we do in September is wide open” said President Christine Lagarde, but it is tough to estimate what will occur as an abundance of economic data, two monthly inflation prints and quarterly figures on GDP and wages will be released before policymakers meet again. Investors however have begun to price in two further rate cuts for the year. 

In the US, retail sales for June (month-on-month) were flat at 0%, following May’s figure being revised to 0.3%. Subsequent to the strong start to the year for retail sales, they have now significantly cooled as households continue to feel the pinch of stubborn inflation and elevated interest rates. PepsiCo, the drinks manufacturer, announced they have seen a trend in lower income households seeking alternatives which affected their second quarter revenue results. 

UK retail sales disappointed this morning, declining by -1.2% month-on-month. Wet weather in June could have been a contributory factor, along with high interest rates. As time goes by more consumers will be re-mortgaging to higher levels and this will naturally curb consumer spending in other areas of the economy.

It has been a fascinating week in markets, with big rotations occurring in equities. The first real concerns around the artificial intelligence (AI) theme surfaced this week. On the back of concerns around user application, future revenues and possible Trump tariffs we witnessed big reversals in previous market leaders. Dutch chip equipment maker ASML fell over 12% on Wednesday, while other AI darlings such as Nvidia fell over 6% on the day. 

The summer months are historically quiet in markets, with the holiday period leading to low trading volumes and limited activity. However, the current period feels anything but quiet, and with interest rate cuts appearing imminent it is unlikely to quieten down anytime soon! We will be keeping a close eye on events, aiming to ensure portfolios are well placed to blossom over the summer months.

Nathan Amaning, Investment Analyst

Risk warning: With investing, your capital is at risk. The value of investments and the income from them can go down as well as up and you may not recover the amount of your initial investment. Certain investments carry a higher degree of risk than others and are, therefore, unsuitable for some investors.

The Week In Markets – 6th July – 12th July 2024

It has been a busy week in markets, alongside an exciting week in sport. On Wednesday evening England left it late to beat the Netherlands to reach the Euro 24 men’s football final. The England men’s cricket team are taking on the West Indies in what will be James Anderson’s last test match. He steps back as the leading wicket taker in test history for a fast bowler. For the sporting enthusiasts there is a jam-packed weekend ahead with England taking on Spain in the men’s Euro 24 final, followed by the Copa America final between Argentina and Colombia. We will also have the Wimbledon Tennis finals to enjoy.

Rachel Reeves is the UK’s first female Chancellor of the Exchequer and in her first speech she got straight to business, asking officials for an assessment of the UK’s public spending capabilities. The assessment will come before an Autumn budget which is set to be announced before the end of the month. Another bold move that was made almost immediately was the removal of the de facto ban on onshore wind farms that was put in place in 2015, paving the way for labour to set up “Great British Energy”.

Onto economic data, in the UK GDP figures for May were released and pleasantly surprised. Year-on-year, GDP was 1.4%, exceeding market expectations of 1.2%. This figure has come as a boost for the Labour party & Prime Minister Kier Starmer who aims to increase economic stability and growth in the UK. We must remember good news can be bad news (for markets) and although we take the positives from the current economic strength, estimates on the Bank of England (BoE) cutting rates has been pushed back due to the underlying strength of the economy.   

Earlier this week, Carlsberg agreed a deal to purchase Britvic, the soft drinks company, for £3.3bn after previous failed bids last month. Britvic will be more commonly known as the home to drinks such as Robinsons, J2O and Lipton Iced Tea. This deal allows Carlsberg to expand their presence in the non-alcoholic market and enhance their geographic footprint.

Dyson are known for their vacuum cleaners and hair dryers, but the plug has been pulled on 1,000 jobs in the UK as part of a cost cutting restructure. Although the headquarters were moved to Singapore in 2019 there are still three sites in the UK responsible for the designs and research and development (R&D). The cuts have been made as the company aims to be more agile. Dyson are still pushing their R&D spend, aiming to make waves in the robotics sector.

In the US, inflation figures for June were announced on Thursday leading to huge swings in markets. Headline inflation fell from 3.3% to 3%, beyond market expectations of 3.1%. Core inflation (excludes food and energy prices) dropped to 3.3%, beating market forecasts of 3.4%. The general trend of US inflation is falling following the slight rebound we experienced at the beginning of the year. Following the inflation data there was a huge reversal in market leadership, with the much written about “magnificent seven” stocks, which have been leading the market, dropping over 4% on average, while the US small cap index rose over 3.5%. Small cap stocks are seen as being more interest rate sensitive; the weaker inflation data led to an increased expectation of imminent rate cuts in the US, boosting the small cap index, along with other rate sensitive sectors such as utilities. Government bond yields, in the US and UK, fell on the inflation data.  

Data from China this morning showed their exports grew 8.6% year-on-year, leading to a record trade surplus. The import picture was much less positive, highlighting the weakness in domestic consumption, with imports down -2.3% year-on-year. China’s reliance on exports could lead to problems if a potential Trump-led US administration begin to impose further tariffs on their exports.

At a currency level the softer US inflation data led to the USD weakening against a wide range of currencies. The Pound is now at highs against the USD not seen since July 2023. The Japanese yen, which has been exceptionally weak in 2024, staged a mini recovery on Thursday afternoon, with rumours of intervention from the Bank of Japan.

Despite huge swings in markets on Thursday, it was pleasing to see that portfolios were largely immune from the volatility. This was driven by our diversified approach which is not overly focused on one sector, currency or country.

Nathan Amaning, Investment Analyst

Risk warning: With investing, your capital is at risk. The value of investments and the income from them can go down as well as up and you may not recover the amount of your initial investment. Certain investments carry a higher degree of risk than others and are, therefore, unsuitable for some investors.

The Week In Markets – 29th June – 5th July 2024

The fourth of July is a special day for the US every year, as they celebrate their independence. This year it was also a key date in the UK calendar with the UK General Election taking place. The Labour Party, led by Sir Kier Starmer, had long been touted as favourites to win, and this was confirmed by Friday morning, with Labour securing a landslide victory to claim an absolute majority with 412 seats.

It has been 14 years since Labour were last in power, under Gordon Brown, and their turnaround from a poor showing in the 2019 election has been profound. Many high-profile Tory MPs lost seats, including Liz Truss and Jacob Rees-Mogg. Labour has campaigned on change, and is focusing on providing economic stability, improving the NHS and creating “Great British Energy” with the aim of reducing bills and making Britain a clean energy superpower.

The reaction from UK markets has been largely positive to the news. The outcome was widely expected and much of Labour’s rhetoric has been seen as pro-growth and pro-business. Mid-cap, more domestically focused equities have had a strong week and this continued, rising over 1% on the election news. Interestingly government bond yields dropped this morning (prices rose), which highlights that Labour are not seen as a fiscally irresponsible party. Sterling nudged higher versus the USD, potentially on the prospect of political stability.

In France, the snap election that President Macron called for has not been so smooth as Le Pen’s National Rally (NR) party won the first round. This coming Sunday will be the final round of voting, and we have seen over 200 candidates drop out from the local polls to stop the NR achieving an outright majority.  The French are known to protest, and this time is no different, as thousands gathered in Paris calling for voters to block the rise of the far right. The uncertainty has rocked French markets as bond yields have risen and the equity market is down -3% over a month, although it has rebounded this week. The expectation now is that the NR will not be able to secure an outright majority and that helped soothe markets.

We have spoken about the Swiss National Bank (SNB) in recent weeks, noting that they have cut interest rates twice this year. There was a pleasant surprise, when on Thursday, June’s inflation (year-on-year) fell beyond market forecast to 1.3% and inflation (month-on-month) came in flat at 0%. The reaction to falling inflation has been positive and there are expectations that the SNB will look to continue the cutting cycle in September.

US equity markets are steadily continuing their climb as the main market closed at its 32nd record high of 2024. The tech-heavy NASDAQ has risen over 2% for the week with huge contributions from the Magnificent 7 stocks. Tesla reported better than expected car sales for Q2 24 and their share price has rallied over 25% for the week. Microsoft and Apple have raced back ahead of Nvidia in terms of market cap with extremely strong performance this week.

US Non-farm Payrolls are in and remain strong once again as 206,000 jobs were created in June, beating market expectations of 190,000. The previous month’s figure of 272,000 has been revised down to 218,000. Wages (year-on-year) have slightly eased to 3.9%, in line with market expectations. US Fed Chair Powell spoke earlier this week at a conference in Portugal, emphasising the need to see more data which will provide an accurate picture of the economy.

While the UK General Election has passed with little disruption to markets, both the French and US elections could create more volatility, with the outcomes less certain. As a result, it is prudent to ensure portfolios are well diversified and not overly concentrated by sector or country.

Nathan Amaning, Investment Analyst

Risk warning: With investing, your capital is at risk. The value of investments and the income from them can go down as well as up and you may not recover the amount of your initial investment. Certain investments carry a higher degree of risk than others and are, therefore, unsuitable for some investors.

The Month In Markets – June 2024

The Month In Markets - June 2024

June was an eventful month, with political events dominating headlines. This was alongside the news of Nvidia becoming the world’s largest listed company (even if just for a few days) and UK inflation falling to the target of 2%.

Following on from a poor showing in the EU elections, French President Macron called a surprise snap election, with the first round of voting taking place at the end of June. There was no need for Macron to send the French citizens to the voting booths, however, he felt it was the right thing to do after Le Pen’s National Rally (NR) party received more than double the votes compared to Macron’s Renaissance party. French markets were negatively impacted on the news of the elections, with both equities and bonds falling in price. The Euro also suffered on the election news, with GBP reaching a 22-month high against the Euro.

The first round of the election, which took place on the last day of the month, was won by Le Pen. The second vote will now see if Le Pen can secure an absolute majority. The polls suggest this is unlikely, although not impossible. The pain for French equities and the Euro meant European equity markets were the laggard in the month of June.

The build-up to the US election ramped up in June, with President Biden and Republican candidate Trump going head-to-head in a live debate. There was broad consensus that Trump came out on top, and the market quickly priced in a higher probability of Trump returning to the White House. Interestingly, equity markets responded favourably to the news. While there are concerns about Trump, he is seen as being pro-business and pro-consumer. When he last took power, he introduced sweeping tax cuts that are due to expire in 2025. He is seen as the most likely to extend these tax cuts. While there are negative implications for government debt levels, through lower tax receipts, it should help business profits and consumer expenditure.

It feels slightly strange to write, but the UK political backdrop appears relatively calm compared to many of our peers! With the election due to take place on 4th July, it is assumed that Labour will take power, with a majority, and this will lead to a level of relative stability for the country.

Staying with the UK, inflation data (for the month of May) was released, which showed that headline inflation had fallen to 2%, the Bank of England’s (BoE) official target. This was the lowest level of inflation since July 2021. While the BoE maintained interest rates, evidence that inflation is at target could encourage them to reduce interest rates in the coming months. UK wage growth is now running comfortably above inflation, which should help support the consumer and encourage spending. The one fly in the ointment regarding the labour market was that unemployment had risen to 4.3% and has been trending higher over recent months.

Over in the US, headline inflation came in at 3.3%, broadly in line with expectations. The US Fed’s preferred measure of inflation is the Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) index, which was flat month-on-month, the lowest reading since April 2020. The yearly figure of 2.6% was encouraging to see, and potentially opens the door to a rate cut in September for the US. While there was progress for the UK and US in their battle against inflation, Canada, Australia and the Eurozone saw mild rises in inflation, which will certainly keep central bankers on their toes. Japan saw inflation come in ahead of consensus at 2.1%. This country remains the outlier, as the central bank is trying to stoke inflation, as opposed to tame it. There is early evidence that inflation expectations are becoming more entrenched in Japan which should be a positive, and lead to a pickup in spending from consumers and businesses, who sit on large cash piles. The Bank of Japan (BoJ) have continued to take their time over raising interest rates in Japan, which has negatively impacted their currency. The yen, which looks extremely cheap on a range of metrics, continued to trend lower in June, reaching 38-year lows versus the USD. The currency also slid against GBP and is down over 10% for the first half of 2024. This has been painful for the Japanese holdings in portfolios (in GBP terms).

At a company level, Nvidia breached the $3 trillion market cap level and briefly surpassed Microsoft as the world’s largest listed company. The moves in the semiconductor company share price have been staggering, with the company adding $1 trillion of value in 32 trading days. Towards the end of the month the share price did sell-off, falling around 15% at one point, allowing Microsoft and Apple to rise above it, in terms of market cap. Apple, after a weak start to the year, saw its share price rally significantly in June on the back of an artificial intelligence (AI) announcement around “Apple Intelligence”. The big hope here is that the introduction of AI into new devices will trigger an upgrade cycle, with consumers replacing old iPhones and iMacs in order to access Apple Intelligence.

Technology excitement extended to the emerging markets over June, with companies such as Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) and Samsung seeing strong moves in share prices. These two companies helped buoy the Asia pacific ex Japan and emerging market indices.

There were two notable corporate bids during June in the UK, with the consortium of private equity bidders returning with a higher offer for Hargreaves Lansdown, as well as Carlsberg having a bid rejected for Britvic. Given the improving outlook for the UK economy, potential for political stability and cheap valuations we expect corporate activity to remain elevated throughout the year.

It was a mixed month in general, with the equity market being led higher by a narrow range of sectors. This made it difficult for genuinely diversified approaches, with concentration and high stock specific risk being rewarded. Our approach aims to reduce these risks, particularly at times when valuations and expectations are elevated. We will continue to tread a careful path through markets, maintaining diversification and taking a sensible approach to valuations, where we believe that the price you pay for an asset will have a big impact on long-term returns. While the geopolitical backdrop is challenging, economies are continuing to grow and company profits remain healthy. Yields on fixed income assets are now at attractive levels and there continues to be a range of opportunities for long-term investors.

 

Andy Triggs

Head of Investments, Raymond James, Barbican

Risk warning: With investing, your capital is at risk. Opinions constitute our judgement as of this date and are subject to change without warning. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results and forecasts are not a reliable indicator of future performance. This article is intended for informational purposes only and no action should be taken or refrained from being taken as a consequence without consulting a suitably qualified and regulated person.

Appendix

5-year performance chart

The Week In Markets – 22nd June – 28th June 2024

This week has seen the men’s Euro 2024 group stages wrap up with England topping their group, despite some lacklustre performances to date. While the final group match on Tuesday was a dull affair, televised political debates in the UK and US have provided more entertainment for viewers.

There are rumours circulating this morning that the Democrat party are considering replacing Biden as their candidate following his performance last night. In the aftermath of the debate, the odds of Trump becoming the next US President spiked and that could potentially force the Democrats to act. The pair duelled over a wide range of topics, from immigration, foreign policy and even golf handicaps, with Trump dismissing Biden’s claim that he once had a golf handicap of 6! It was interesting to see that US equity futures jumped on Thursday evening on the back of a perceived victory for Trump. Here in the UK the market does not foresee such a close election race as the US, with Labour expected to win with a majority. Wednesday’s debate did little to change this expectation. 

Chinese fast fashion retailer, Shein, has kicked off the process for a listing on the London Stock Exchange, which would be a huge victory for the UK market that has seen multiple companies head to the US to list. Valued at $66bn, the deal would be one of the UK’s largest ever. However, there is still a long way to go with a human rights group urging the FCA to block Shein’s initial public offering (IPO) over concerns around labour standards.

Staying in the UK, electrical gadget retailer Currys, which rejected a takeover bid earlier in the year, posted positive results. The company has now forecast that artificial intelligence (AI) powered gadgets are set to further boost profits after reporting a 10% rise in profit before tax over 2023. Currys was the first retailer to launch the Microsoft Copilot PC, a computer with an in-built AI companion, whilst also using their own AI to improve after sales service. Currys CEO believes the company is “best placed to benefit” from the AI – wave of technology, as they also become Microsoft’s first retail repair partner in the UK.

There was less positive company news from two large firms this week with Nike and L’Oreal both providing disappointing updates. This could potentially be early evidence of a weakening global consumer, given a backdrop of high rates in the western world and a sluggish China. Bad news could be good news for markets however, with central banks likely to cut interest rates should they have concerns around the health of the consumer.

Inflation data from Canada, Australia and Japan came in ahead of expectations this week. This will no doubt alert all central banks to the possibility that the battle against inflation may not yet be over, and there is a risk inflation re-accelerates into the second half of the year. In the case of Japan, the Bank of Japan may need to raise interest rates to help stabilise the currency, which has continued to weaken versus a basket of currencies. It is currently trading at 38-year lows versus the USD. The Japanese yen looks cheap on a wide range of metrics, and we see the potential for the currency to mean revert over the medium term.

In a week light on key economic data, it was pleasing to see UK GDP for Q1 revised upwards to 0.7%. The UK economy appears to be grinding on, despite interest rates of 5.25%. US PCE inflation data, which is one of the US Fed’s favoured measures of inflation, came in at 0.1% (month-on-month). Bond yields dropped on the release on Friday afternoon as it supports the case for the US Fed to consider rate cuts.

As we look ahead to next week there should be a lot more to cover with the first round of French elections taking place in addition to the UK General Election.  Alongside these major events we will have key US employment data to dissect.

Andy Triggs, Head of Investments

Risk warning: With investing, your capital is at risk. The value of investments and the income from them can go down as well as up and you may not recover the amount of your initial investment. Certain investments carry a higher degree of risk than others and are, therefore, unsuitable for some investors.

The Week In Markets – 15th June – 21st June 2024

This week has seen Nvidia claim the top spot as the largest listed company, surpassing Microsoft. The company is the posterchild for artificial intelligence (AI) and its market capitalisation has risen by over $2 trillion in 2024 alone. The company is expected to experience extreme growth over the coming years as businesses invest in their AI capability.

Nvidia accounts for 80% of the market for AI chips that companies such as Microsoft, Amazon and Meta have all purchased to implement their own AI models. Tesla and X (formally Twitter) CEO, Mr Elon Musk this week made orders for server chips which will be used for the X AI tool, Grok. We’ve seen the continued impact that Nvidia and the “magnificent seven” firms are having on US equity markets as the S&P 500 and Nasdaq are both up 1% and 1.5% respectively this week.

Staying on the topic of the US, retail sales for the month of May (month-on-month) rose to 0.1%, below market forecasts of 0.2%. This figure can be interpreted as slowing consumer spending; however, this is slightly misleading as the fall in sales was due to the decline in gasoline (oil) prices, which skewed service station spending (dropping 2.2%). Retail sales ex Autos did not budge, remaining at -0.1% for the second consecutive month. A modest slowdown in US household consumption could be the tipping edge for the US Fed to cut rates in September.

There was positive news in the UK as for the first time since 2021, UK headline inflation returned to its 2% target. Core inflation (year-on-year) for May fell as markets forecasted to 3.5%. Goods inflation has fallen from it’s peak of 14% to now becoming deflationary, however continually strong services inflation at 5.7% remains the worry. It is key to note that the effects of subsidised energy bills is set to wear off later this year where markets can expect to see inflation rise again to 2.5%.

The Bank of England (BoE) met the following day after the inflation data and to no surprise kept interest rates firm at 5.25%. Members of the monetary policy committee are still waiting for more reassuring data as we know services inflation is still yet to moderate as far as expected and private sector wage growth has been noted as twice the appropriate level. The market is pricing in a 50% chance of a rate cut in August and the odds of a cut will likely be determined by inflation and jobs data next month. Staying with the UK, there was mixed data on Friday morning with retail sales beating expectations, however services PMI data was weaker than expected.

China continues to struggle, highlighted by weaker than expected industrial production. There were hopes that stimulus measures from Beijing would help turn around the world’s second largest economy, however, it appears the support package has not been big enough to meaningfully help. The Chinese renminbi continues to weaken against most major currencies, which could help their export market.

Market expectations were fulfilled from the Swiss National Bank (SNB), who cut interest rates for the second time this year to 1.25%. We reported on their first cut which came in March, but the SNB felt it was necessary to continue to cut rates despite a slight uptick in economic growth and inflation over the last two months. Chairman Thomas Jordan was also positive, hinting this was not the end of the easing. We are beginning to see diverging monetary policy in the developed world, although it is expected that the US and UK will join the Eurozone, Sweden, Switzerland and Canada in cutting rates later this year.

Equity markets continue to be led by a narrow range of stocks, which has made diversification a difficult strategy to follow of late. We continue to believe it makes sense to have a broad approach to equity investing, exposing portfolios to a wide range of sectors, styles and geographies.

 

Nathan Amaning, Investment Analyst

Risk warning: With investing, your capital is at risk. The value of investments and the income from them can go down as well as up and you may not recover the amount of your initial investment. Certain investments carry a higher degree of risk than others and are, therefore, unsuitable for some investors.

The Week in Markets – 8th June – 14th June 2024

This week has been a busy one for markets as we’ve seen the French President call for a snap parliament vote, manifestos released by the Conservative and Labour parties, as well as key UK & US data points.

On Wednesday, UK GDP (year-on-year) for April was reported at 0.6%, falling from the previous month’s figure of 0.7%. If we consider month-on-month data for April, GDP flatlined and this was the Labour party’s main point of attack on Rishi Sunak, claiming growth had stalled and there was nothing further the Prime Minister could do to counter this. The miserable weather has not been helping the UK economy, negatively impacting sectors such as manufacturing, construction and retail with April being reported as the wettest April since 2012.  

There were further labour market data releases as UK unemployment for April unexpectedly rose to 4.4%. Wages including bonuses remained hot at 5.9%, despite the market forecasting a drop to 5.7%. The Bank of England will meet next Thursday to set rates; however, it is almost a certainty there will be no cut in the interest rate given elevated wage growth. This will be the final meeting before the upcoming General Election on 4th July.  

The Conservative party have launched their 2024 election manifesto with policies including the return of the Help to Buy scheme, increasing the number of Doctors and nurses, increased defence spending and the abolition of national insurance for self employed workers. Two days later, Sir Keir Starmer announced the “pro-business” Labour manifesto, which included cutting hospital waiting lists, £1.8bn to upgrade ports and build supply chains, building 1.5 million new homes in the next five years and creating £8.6bn in tax revenue by abolishing the non-dom loophole. These weeklies will remain impartial to both parties, however the credibility of both manifestos has been questioned. Both parties will consider that unfunded tax cuts could cause another run-on Sterling and volatility in the gilt market.

Rounding up the UK, Raspberry Pi, known for designing single-board and modular computers, decided to IPO on the London stock exchange. Raspberry Pi has had a fantastic first week as a UK listed business, with the share price trading around £4, having listed at £2.80. This listing comes as a huge success for the London stock exchange which has recently suffered from other large companies choosing to list abroad. Deals like this could prompt firms to stay on the domestic market and even attract foreign company listings.

In Germany, we have seen the final figure for May’s inflation reported at 2.4%, a rise from the previous month’s figure of 2.2%. Around Europe it was expected that inflation would pick-up before falling to target later in 2024. Energy and food prices have been falling since the start of the year, so the pick-up was attributed to the end of the subsidised national transport scheme.

US markets were boosted with a pleasant surprise as inflation figures for the month of May fell. Headline inflation (year-on-year) fell to 3.3% and core inflation (excludes energy and food prices) fell to 3.4% from the previous month’s 3.6%. This has boosted equity markets with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq index up 1.7% and 3% for the week respectively. Like clockwork, the US Federal Reserve meeting was scheduled later that day and to no surprise, interest rates were held at 5.5%. Fed Chair, Jerome Powell, accepted that the most current data shows easing in inflation but stated the Fed wanted to “gain further confidence” before cutting rates. Markets are now pricing in just one rate cut for the year which could occur in a meeting before the US election in November.

At a company level Apple announced new artificial intelligence (AI) features into its technology. The news sent Apple’s stock soaring, rising above $3 trillion in market cap, leapfrogging Nvidia in terms of size.

Weaker inflation and evidence of slowing growth was supportive for fixed income markets this week, with yields on government bonds falling (prices rising). These areas of portfolios have been laggards in 2024, so it was pleasing to see a rebound here. UK equities pulled back throughout the week, after a period of strength, while European equities also struggled. The bright spot was the US, where lower inflation data and the news of Apple embedding AI into their phones boosted indices. Next week we will have the latest UK inflation data, where it is expected to fall further and could potentially be at the 2% target. If markets gain confidence that inflation is being tamed then we could see strength in both equities and fixed income as lower interest rates get priced in.

Nathan Amaning, Investment Analyst

Risk warning: With investing, your capital is at risk. The value of investments and the income from them can go down as well as up and you may not recover the amount of your initial investment. Certain investments carry a higher degree of risk than others and are, therefore, unsuitable for some investors.

The Month In Markets – May 2024

The Month In Markets - May 2024

May was a choppy month, with a positive first half turning slightly sour towards the end of the month. The market’s fixation on short-term interest rates and inflation was once again the driving force for asset prices.

Starting with the UK there were two major events during the month, the scheduled release of inflation data and the unscheduled announcement that a general election would take place on 4th July 2024. While most expected an election in the autumn, Sunak surprised many by standing in the rain, calling for a general election in the summer. The Prime Minister may have felt that with stronger than expected economic growth, falling inflation and positive real wage growth, now may be an opportune moment to reverse the polls and try and retain power. While elections can have a big impact on equity, bond and currency markets, this election has not yet caused any wobbles in markets. The broad view seems to be that there will be a Labour victory, but any plans for aggressive spending will be curtailed by what happened to Liz Truss and the infamous mini budget of September 2022. As such it’s seen that Labour will have to play it safe, and that under Starmer they may become a pro-business party.

UK inflation data led to a sell-off in both UK equities and bonds. Despite headline inflation falling to 2.3%, the lowest reading in nearly three years, it was higher than the expected 2.1%. There were also higher than expected readings for core inflation and services inflation, leading to the prospects of a June interest rate cut being removed. The market is now viewing an August cut, post the election, as the most likely outcome.

The theme of takeovers continued in the UK equity market in May. There is a wide range of UK businesses trading at low valuations but performing well at a corporate level, which is making it very attractive for private equity and corporates to acquire firms. While much of the activity has been focused on the lower end of the market, deal sizes are increasing. Keyword Studios was bid for at a 73% premium to the closing price, for £2bn. The company was held in size in our UK smaller companies fund, which benefited from the immediate uplift to the share price on the bid news. Hargreaves Lansdown reported that they had rejected an offer from a consortium of private equity bidders who offered £5bn for the investment platform business. There is every possibility that a further bid could emerge for the company in June.

Over in the US, it was once again Nvidia that grabbed headlines. During the month they announced Q1 results which beat expectations and provided another big boost to the share price. The meteoric rise of the company, driven by artificial intelligence excitement, has helped propel the US equity market higher over the last 12-18 months.

Inflation in the US has proved to be sticky with many of the data readings above expectations in 2024. During May, headline inflation (for the month of April) came in at 3.4%, in line with consensus. US inflation is now considerably above UK inflation, a reversal of 12 months ago and something that many commentators did not expect last summer. The shelter component (rent) of the inflation basket has not fallen as many economists had expected and this has been one of the driving forces behind US inflation remaining considerably above target. Sticky inflation coupled with an economy that is performing well has led to the possibility that the US may not even cut rates this year, a far cry from the 6-7 cuts priced in in January. We think it likely that there will be one or two cuts made by the US Fed this year, although with the US election looming in November, they may need to act soon.

The buoyant US labour market showed signs of easing with Non-Farm Payroll data confirming less jobs had been added to the economy than anticipated. The current tightness in the labour market is leading to elevated wage inflation – the US Fed are keen to see evidence that the jobs market is cooling, and that wage growth is slowing before they pull the trigger and cut interest rates. Despite a period of slightly weaker US data, the overall picture of the US economy is still fairly strong, which should continue to support earnings growth in the near term. The positive news around Nvidia’s earnings helped advance the overall US index, with positive sentiment sweeping across the board.

Government bonds, across the developed world, have been disappointing in 2024. The sector did face headwinds once again in May, particularly the UK, where above consensus inflation data pushed back hopes for interest rate cuts. The backdrop for government bonds has been very challenged this year; lower interest rates typically favour government bond pricing, and this year has seen a huge reversal in expected rate cuts, from 6-7 cuts to now 1-2 rate cuts. We continue to view the asset class positively in terms of the prospect for positive real returns, with many of our government bonds maturing in the near term (at £100) and trading considerably below these levels, which will lead to above-inflation capital growth from now until maturity. To us, the day-to-day noise, is purely this, and won’t impact our strategy of holding these bonds to maturity. We also see government bonds as a potential hedge against any negative economic growth shock. While that is not our base case, we need to position portfolios for a wide range of outcomes. While inflation is the enemy of government bonds, commodities typically thrive in this environment; we have exposure here through holdings such as gold and commodity equities.

The Raymond James, Barbican portfolios nudged higher over the month, with UK equities and infrastructure producing strong returns during May. Japanese equities lagged, dragged down by the currency, which has continued to weaken. The Japanese Yen now looks very cheap on a wide range of metrics, and we believe there is a high likelihood the currency will mean-revert over the medium term, and as such we are comfortable with our exposure.

 Andy Triggs

Head of Investments, Raymond James, Barbican

Risk warning: With investing, your capital is at risk. Opinions constitute our judgement as of this date and are subject to change without warning. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. This article is intended for informational purposes only and no action should be taken or refrained from being taken as a consequence without consulting a suitably qualified and regulated person.

The Week In Markets – 1st June -7th June 2024

This week, as expected, the European Central Bank (ECB) cut interest rates by 25bps (0.25%), bringing interest rates down to 4.25%. This was the ECB’s first rate cut in five years. While the UK and US are still to cut rates, the ECB joins Sweden, Switzerland and Canada in reducing rates.

As ever, the commentary from ECB president, Christine Lagarde, was as important as the interest rate decision, allowing investors to gauge the ECB’s position on future cuts. Lagarde surprisingly upgraded both the inflation and growth outlook for Europe, leading some to question why they have cut rates. The market is pricing in another rate cut in 2024 and will be studying data closely.

This week the battle for 10 Downing Street continued as Prime Minister Sunak and Labour leader Sir Kier Starmer went head-to-head in a TV debate. They battled on several topics such as tax, the NHS, and immigration. The TV debates are coming thick and fast with a seven-way political debate taking place this evening.

Last week we covered the South African presidential race and the elections continued around the world. In Mexico, where they are currently experiencing a heatwave, the first female President, Claudia Sheinbaum, was elected after a landslide victory. The former climate scientist who is currently serving as the mayor of Mexico City, has promised to control the cartel violence, improve health and education and increase the living wage which is “a right not a privilege”.

Heading over to India, Prime Minister Narendra Modi has been in power for the last ten years and is set for a third term in power, however this term will be different. A coalition of Modi’s party (BJP) and the opposition INDIA will be formed with Mr Modi as the figurehead for the national democratic alliance. A world record was set with more than 640 million people voting in the election in the hope the new government would tackle elevated unemployment levels. The news that Modi would be unlikely to claim a majority led to the Indian equity index falling 6%.

This week the main US equity index hit a record high for the 25th time this year, powered by the technology stocks and most notably Nvidia. On Wednesday, Nvidia became the second largest company in the world by market cap, reaching $3 trillion and overtaking Apple. The company stock has risen 145% in 2024, adding over $1.8 trillion in value off the back of strong earnings and expectations of very strong demand going forward. A spate of weaker US economic data has also led to markets pricing in an additional rate cut this year and that has boosted the equity market.  

US Non-farm payrolls are released on the first Friday of the month and surprised today as for the month of May 272,000 jobs were created, exceeding the market forecast of 185,000. The previous month’s figure was revised down to 165,000, however this now seems an anomaly for the year highlighting the continued strength of the labour market.

Next week looks like a busy week with UK GDP and US inflation being reported. The US Fed will be hoping that inflation continues to move closer to their 2% target, which will allow them to cut interest rates before the presidential election. Here in the UK the economy has been proving stronger than expected and hopefully the data will show this is continuing. We currently see value in UK equities, with many businesses trading at distressed prices, however their underlying company performance is anything but distressed.

Nathan Amaning, Investment Analyst

Risk warning: With investing, your capital is at risk. The value of investments and the income from them can go down as well as up and you may not recover the amount of your initial investment. Certain investments carry a higher degree of risk than others and are, therefore, unsuitable for some investors.

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