It’s been a quieter week in terms of economic data, following on from last week’s bumper US rate cut, alongside the Bank of England’s decision to keep rates at 5%.
The week started with worse than expected manufacturing and services data from Europe, the UK and US. Germany and France are Europe’s two largest economies, yet both saw disappointing results, drawing conclusions that Germany could have fallen into recession over Q2 and Q3, with their manufacturing PMI falling to 40.3. It has been 47 days since the Olympics ended in Paris and the country’s services sector, which saw a spike during the Olympics, appears to have run out of steam, with composite PMI for September falling to 47.4, from 53.1 in August. The European Central Bank (ECB) cut interest rates for the second consecutive time on the 12th of this month, but we could see the level of cuts increase if the Eurozone continues to regress. Inflation data, released this morning, will likely support the ECB’s decision to cut rates, with year-on-year inflation coming in at 1.5% for Spain, while monthly inflation in France fell by 1.2%.
On Monday we also saw the Chancellor, Rachel Reeves, speak at the Labour Party’s annual conference and her words “tough decisions are needed” has built up even more anticipation ahead of the budget at the end of October. She announced the imminent appointment of a Covid corruption commission to seek to recoup over £600m of contracts the Conversative party had handed out and also pledged to set up free breakfast clubs in primary schools for the nation.
In the US, PCE inflation has been released this Friday afternoon and fallen to 2.2% (year-on-year). Core PCE (month-on-month) has also surprised at 0.1%, falling below market expectations of 0.2%. The data supports the recent 0.5% rate cut and could encourage the US Fed to stay on the rate cutting path.
The Swiss National Bank (SNB) concluded their meeting this week, cutting rates by 25bps (0.25%) for the third time this year to combat low inflation, with interest rates now settling at 1%. For the Swiss, their journey has been slightly different to other major countries as in April 2022, interest rates were negative at -0.75% before the SNB hiked to the 16-year high of 1.75%. The Swiss Franc has also risen on the back of falling inflation causing issues for Swiss exporters.
The biggest news this week has come out of China. The country has introduced another wave of stimulus in a desperate attempt to ignite economic growth and prevent their housing sector deteriorating further. China is set to miss their 5% target of economic growth, and this has prompted the action. So far, all stimulus measures have appeared weak, however, the latest moves, including cuts to borrowing rates and investing in the stock market do seem to appear bigger than previous attempts and will hopefully drive an economic recovery. The level of banking reserves required has been slashed to 9.5%; in 2011 the reserve requirements were 21%. The market so far seems to be impressed, with Chinese equities rising over 10% this week, after hitting five-year lows recently. Luxury goods companies, such as Burberry, which typically rely on the Chinese consumer, have seen their share prices rebound this week on renewed optimism about the Chinese consumer.
The Chinese stimulus boost has been felt around the world, with equities generally having a positive week. Bond yields have nudged higher (prices fallen) as a rebounding China is likely to come with an inflationary pulse. The big question is whether the stimulus measures are enough – changing the fortunes of the housing market in China is no easy task. Portfolios have benefitted from the rebound in China with our emerging markets and Asia funds performing best this week. Gold, an important asset class in portfolios, has once again made new highs this week and has advanced close to 30% in 2024.
Nathan Amaning, Investment Analyst
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