Today we enter the month of September so it’s only right we start off with a fact of the month. The Romans often related different months with different Gods and September is connected with Vulcan, the God of Fire, due its fiery hot weather. It has also been reported that the UK will be hit by a mini heatwave, living up to the September myth.
Last week we reported that the annual Jackson Hole Symposium was taking place on the Friday, with key economic policymakers scheduled to make a speech. Arguably the most powerful man at the event, US Fed Chair Jerome Powell, looked to deliver a less hawkish message than the previous year, stating the Fed would be “moving with care” to evaluate data points. Progress towards the 2% inflation target has been significant as the US Fed brought inflation down to 3.3% from its peak, having raised rates by 5.25% since March 2022. Mr Powell ended his speech once again stating the importance of “holding policy at restrictive level” until inflation falls viably to target, however investors have begun to speculate whether we are already at the terminal interest rate. Markets rallied on the back of Powell’s speech with US equities advancing either side of the weekend and US government bond yields falling (prices rise).
US GDP Growth for Q2 was released on Thursday, growing 2.1%, just below the 2.4% market expectation. The downgrade in US GDP growth will be a data point the US Fed consider before their next meeting in September and could strengthen the argument for a potential pause as the Fed will not want to further hamper the US economy. Investor views are heavily divided between a potential recession and the “soft landing” scenario that we describe as inflation falling close to target, with labour markets and economies remaining stable. There was further “bad news” from the US with the job openings data disappointing. Markets reacted to the weaker data this week positively, believing it pointed towards the US Fed no longer needing to raise rates. Equities carried on the momentum from Jackson Hole and advanced further.
US Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) was released this Friday afternoon with 187,000 jobs created, ahead of market expectations of a 170k increase, signalling the continued strength of the US labour market.
Euro zone inflation data was released on Thursday, defying expectations. The Inflation rate (year-on-year) was 5.3% for August, the same as the previous month but greater than the 5.1% markets expected. Inflation rates from Germany, Spain, Italy and France all came in higher than expected, which will be a cause for concern for the European Central Bank. Higher oil prices could also put upwards pressure on inflation later in the year. The oil price has continued to move higher this week.
Covering news in the UK, this week Nationwide reported house prices fell by -5.3% (year-on-year) in the month of August, the fastest annual drop over the last 14 years. Putting this into perspective, the average house price is more than £14,500 cheaper then reported a year ago. However, the steep rise we have seen in interest rates have made affordability difficult for buyers, with many having to wait until rates settle. House sales are 40% down from 2021 where we saw a housing sales boom after a period of low interest rates, the build-up of household savings due to covid lockdowns and the stamp duty holiday.
The start of September also signals the transfer deadline for football fans. As an investment team we aim to avoid making last minute panic decisions in portfolios and prefer to have structure and a long-term process around our decision making.
Nathan Amaning, Investment Analyst
Risk warning: With investing, your capital is at risk. The value of investments and the income from them can go down as well as up and you may not recover the amount of your initial investment. Certain investments carry a higher degree of risk than others and are, therefore, unsuitable for some investors.