Today is the first day of November, an important month that will determine the US presidency with the election taking place next week. This week in the UK there was a significant event that most will have closely followed, the Autumn Budget 2024, where Chancellor Rachel Reeves became the first female in history to deliver the budget.
There was a lot to digest in the budget with larger than anticipated tax rises, spending and borrowing being announced in Labour’s first budget in over 14 years. There were increases to national insurance contributions for employers, hikes to capital gains tax rates and changes to inheritance tax treatment of pensions and farmland. The national living wage was raised, while there is going to be increased spending on education and the NHS, amongst other things. The Labour government has pushed the growth agenda although the picture painted by the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) suggests growth will be largely unchanged over the five-year period following the budget announcement. Reaction in UK markets will be slightly concerning for the Chancellor. The yield on government bonds rose towards the latter part of the week. This was likely due to the OBR’s expectation that the budget will increase inflation, while issuance of government bonds will need to increase to finance the budget. Sterling weakened on Thursday, falling below 1.29 against the USD and moving to 1.18 versus the Euro. It’s worth stressing that these moves in bond and currency markets are much more muted than immediately after Liz Truss’ mini budget.
Eurozone inflation figures were released on Thursday with headline inflation rising 30bps (0.3%) to 2% and core inflation (excludes food and energy prices) rising 10bps (0.1%) to 2.7%. European Central Bank (ECB) President Ms Lagarde was vocal on the importance of caution when deciding further interest rate cuts and with services inflation at 3.9% the ECB may pause their rate cutting journey. The Eurozone’s labour market also remains tight with unemployment still at all-time lows of 6.3% in September.
There has been a “sign of life” for Germany’s economy as GDP rose in Q3 by 0.2%, meaning they narrowly escaped a recession. Economic growth was driven by government spending and resilient retail sales growth that stood firm at 1.2% for the month of September. Germany has been battling high energy costs for households and businesses and weakened demand for exports. Inflation in Germany rose in the month of October to 2% and reiterates the ECB’s case for caution in order to avoid a re-acceleration in inflation.
US Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) is the US Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of inflation and for the month of September PCE was 2.1%, down from 2.3% in the previous month. With inflation close to the US Fed’s target, we may well see another 25bps (0.25%) rate cut this month, however markets are worried about the potential rise in inflation that we could see at the end of the year caused by the US election.
US Non-farm payrolls are released at the beginning of every month and October’s data, released today, disappointed. Market expectations were that 133,000 jobs would be created however we have now seen this number come in at 12,000. It is extremely likely that hurricane Milton caused severe disruptions to the survey, with many workers temporarily off payrolls. Unemployment stayed firm at 4.1% and wage growth remained strong at 4%.
Supermicro is a US firm that designs and builds servers and storage systems for AI data centres. The company was firmly on the AI gravy train with their share price reaching a high of $114 in March 2024, however it has all seemed to unwind very fast. This week Ernst & Young, the audit firm who were hired just months ago, have resigned as they were “unwilling to be associated with the financial statements prepared by management”. There is often no smoke without fire as Supermicro are still yet to release any financial statements and are now reportedly under federal investigation. Shares fell on Wednesday by 33% on the news.
The US election is likely to dominate news flow next week with the potential for volatility across asset markets. History has shown that markets can perform well over the long-term, regardless which political party is in the White House.
Nathan Amaning, Investment Analyst
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