The 26th UN Climate Change Conference of the Parties (COP26) continued this week, with Friday marking the final day of the conference. The positive start to the conference appears to be coming to a head today, with delegates rushing to agree on plans to cap global temperature increases to 1.5C. The fall-out from COP26 will impact the world both from an environmental standpoint but also an economic one. It’s clear that the efforts to shift to a more sustainable, green footing, will create both opportunities and threats for various sectors and companies.
Concerns around inflation seem to have plagued markets all year and recent data out of the US has done little to dampen investor concerns. Only last week we saw markets switch and push out their expectations for interest rate rises on the back of an apparent shift in central bank positioning. However, that position was immediately challenged with US CPI reported at 6.2% on Wednesday, the highest level since 1990. The higher-than-expected number led to US Treasuries (government bonds) once again selling off and the US dollar strengthening on a global basis. High levels of inflation will prove problematic to consumers, who will face a squeeze on their real spending power. Central banks globally will be forced to act if inflation turns out to be more persistent and not transitory.
UK equities have lagged behind US and European equities since the Brexit referendum in 2016. Despite what appear cheap relative valuations, investors have largely stepped away from the market, concerned about the increased risks Brexit has created for UK companies. However, this could be beginning to change, with the UK large-cap index hitting a 20-month high this week. The rise in the index coincided with news that the US investment bank JP Morgan had upgraded UK equities to ‘overweight’ for the first time since 2016.
It’s been a while since we covered COVID-19 in these weekly updates, however, rising cases in Europe and a three-week partial lockdown announced in the Netherlands this week mean it is back in focus for investors. The Dutch are going to be closing bars and restaurants early while sporting events will be played without crowds.
Climate risk, COVID-19 and rising inflation are just some of the issues challenging investors currently. Despite this, we have seen very resilient equity markets, with strong performance over the last month or so. Our focus continues to be attempting to look through short-term noise and focusing on long-term opportunities while ensuring there is sufficient diversification in portfolios to help protect against some of the known (and unknown) risks highlighted here.
Andy Triggs |
Head of Investments, Raymond James, Barbican
With investing, your capital is at risk. The value of investments and the income from them can go down as well as up and you may not recover the amount of your initial investment. Certain investments carry a higher degree of risk than others and are, therefore, unsuitable for some investors.