It has been a busy week in markets, alongside an exciting week in sport. On Wednesday evening England left it late to beat the Netherlands to reach the Euro 24 men’s football final. The England men’s cricket team are taking on the West Indies in what will be James Anderson’s last test match. He steps back as the leading wicket taker in test history for a fast bowler. For the sporting enthusiasts there is a jam-packed weekend ahead with England taking on Spain in the men’s Euro 24 final, followed by the Copa America final between Argentina and Colombia. We will also have the Wimbledon Tennis finals to enjoy.
Rachel Reeves is the UK’s first female Chancellor of the Exchequer and in her first speech she got straight to business, asking officials for an assessment of the UK’s public spending capabilities. The assessment will come before an Autumn budget which is set to be announced before the end of the month. Another bold move that was made almost immediately was the removal of the de facto ban on onshore wind farms that was put in place in 2015, paving the way for labour to set up “Great British Energy”.
Onto economic data, in the UK GDP figures for May were released and pleasantly surprised. Year-on-year, GDP was 1.4%, exceeding market expectations of 1.2%. This figure has come as a boost for the Labour party & Prime Minister Kier Starmer who aims to increase economic stability and growth in the UK. We must remember good news can be bad news (for markets) and although we take the positives from the current economic strength, estimates on the Bank of England (BoE) cutting rates has been pushed back due to the underlying strength of the economy.
Earlier this week, Carlsberg agreed a deal to purchase Britvic, the soft drinks company, for £3.3bn after previous failed bids last month. Britvic will be more commonly known as the home to drinks such as Robinsons, J2O and Lipton Iced Tea. This deal allows Carlsberg to expand their presence in the non-alcoholic market and enhance their geographic footprint.
Dyson are known for their vacuum cleaners and hair dryers, but the plug has been pulled on 1,000 jobs in the UK as part of a cost cutting restructure. Although the headquarters were moved to Singapore in 2019 there are still three sites in the UK responsible for the designs and research and development (R&D). The cuts have been made as the company aims to be more agile. Dyson are still pushing their R&D spend, aiming to make waves in the robotics sector.
In the US, inflation figures for June were announced on Thursday leading to huge swings in markets. Headline inflation fell from 3.3% to 3%, beyond market expectations of 3.1%. Core inflation (excludes food and energy prices) dropped to 3.3%, beating market forecasts of 3.4%. The general trend of US inflation is falling following the slight rebound we experienced at the beginning of the year. Following the inflation data there was a huge reversal in market leadership, with the much written about “magnificent seven” stocks, which have been leading the market, dropping over 4% on average, while the US small cap index rose over 3.5%. Small cap stocks are seen as being more interest rate sensitive; the weaker inflation data led to an increased expectation of imminent rate cuts in the US, boosting the small cap index, along with other rate sensitive sectors such as utilities. Government bond yields, in the US and UK, fell on the inflation data.
Data from China this morning showed their exports grew 8.6% year-on-year, leading to a record trade surplus. The import picture was much less positive, highlighting the weakness in domestic consumption, with imports down -2.3% year-on-year. China’s reliance on exports could lead to problems if a potential Trump-led US administration begin to impose further tariffs on their exports.
At a currency level the softer US inflation data led to the USD weakening against a wide range of currencies. The Pound is now at highs against the USD not seen since July 2023. The Japanese yen, which has been exceptionally weak in 2024, staged a mini recovery on Thursday afternoon, with rumours of intervention from the Bank of Japan.
Despite huge swings in markets on Thursday, it was pleasing to see that portfolios were largely immune from the volatility. This was driven by our diversified approach which is not overly focused on one sector, currency or country.
Nathan Amaning, Investment Analyst
Risk warning: With investing, your capital is at risk. The value of investments and the income from them can go down as well as up and you may not recover the amount of your initial investment. Certain investments carry a higher degree of risk than others and are, therefore, unsuitable for some investors.