Weekly Notes – Page 10 – Raymond James, Barbican

The Week In Markets – 16th July – 22nd July

July 22, 2022July 22, 2022

The conservative leadership race continued in earnest this week, whittling down the candidates to the final two, meaning the next Prime Minister will be either Liz Truss or Rishi Sunak. Despite collecting the most votes in each of the rounds, Sunak is seen as the underdog, with Truss now bookies favourite to be installed into 10 Downing St on 5^th September. This could all change over the next six weeks as the final two attempt to convince a ballot of 160,000 Tory Party members they deserve to lead the Party.

Elsewhere in the UK inflation data once again surprised to the upside, which has been a constant trend this year. At 9.4%, inflation is now at a 40-year high and will put pressure on the bank of England to raise rates by more than 0.25% at their next meeting, with a 0.5% raise now being pencilled in. As we have written about in recent weeks, the market’s focus appears to have shifted from inflation concerns to growth concerns, and this was once again evident in the bond markets this week. Despite elevated inflation, we’ve seen steep falls in UK government bond yields over the last three days. Indeed, this trend has been witnessed across the developed world. Yields on the UK 10-yr government bond have fallen below 2% for the first time since May 2022, while the US equivalent yield has fallen through 3% this week, currently at 2.81%. While inflation in the short-term is likely to be stubbornly high, there is a greater belief in the market that the actions of central banks will subdue growth, curb demand and ultimately bring down inflation over time.

The past week has felt a little bit like the previous decade, with falling bond yields leading to strong rallies in growth stocks. This has led to the US market, which has a large exposure to these types of equities, having a strong week. More broadly we have seen strength across most equity markets, with the UK large-cap index hitting a three-week high on Wednesday.

Europe has been in the spotlight this week with all eyes on the Nord Stream pipeline which was due to restart after 10 days of maintenance. There have been concerns that Russia would not switch the gas back on to Germany and Europe after the maintenance, however by Friday gas volumes flowing to Germany were back at pre-maintenance levels. It should be noted that this level was still only at 40% capacity, but for now at least, it means there is still gas flowing into western Europe. There were further positive developments by the end of the week with reports that a deal had been agreed between Russia and Ukraine to allow grain exports to leave the currently blockaded Black Sea ports. This would go a long way to help alleviate concerns around a potential food crisis and put downward pressure on grain prices. As we have seen with potential agreements and deals since Russia invaded Ukraine in February, nothing can be guaranteed, and the situation could change quickly.

The European Central Bank met on Thursday and surprised markets by raising rates by 0.5%, which was more than expected. This was the first interest rate rise in Europe since 2011 and symbolically moved rates to zero and out of negative territory for the first time in eight years.

Staying with Europe, the Italian political situation remained in turmoil with Draghi officially stepping back. There are new elections pencilled in for September with the potential for more extreme parties to gain traction given the current cost-of-living and energy crisis in Italy.

While the UK has basked in the sun this week with the mercury rising to 40C, it’s been pleasing to see equities also rising this week. The rally has been broad based, with most sectors and regions participating, although the growth focused areas of the market, such as technology, have been the stand-out performers. In a week where we’ve faced risks surrounding gas supplies to Europe, UK inflation at 9.4% and less than spectacular US corporate earnings it may surprise many to see markets higher. It’s a timely reminder that the market is forward looking and reflects where we are likely to get to, not where we are at today.

Andy Triggs, Head of Investments & Nathan Amaning, Investment Analyst

Risk warning: With investing, your capital is at risk. The value of investments and the income from them can go down as well as up and you may not recover the amount of your initial investment. Certain investments carry a higher degree of risk than others and are, therefore, unsuitable for some investors.

The Week In Markets – 9th July – 15th July

July 15, 2022July 15, 2022

A busy week with politics dominating the headlines in UK and Europe, while inflation data and company earnings were the focus across the Atlantic.

The race for the Conservative leadership kicked off this week, with initial voting rounds commencing and candidates being whittled down. There are now only five candidates remaining, with Sunak, Mordaunt and Truss amongst the favourites. We do now know the new Prime Minister will be in place by 5^th September.

Political turmoil was not confined to just the UK, with Italian Prime Minister Mario Draghi offering his resignation after losing the support of coalition partner, the Five Star party. The Five Star party do not believe Draghi is doing enough to aid with the cost-of-living crisis. In an interesting twist, Draghi’s resignation was rejected by the Italian President – the current picture is a little unclear but there should be more clarity next week with Draghi due in parliament on Wednesday.

All eyes were firmly focused on US inflation data on Wednesday. As has been the trend this year, the data came in higher than consensus, and reached yet another new 40-year high. The 9.1% inflation reading was above the expected 8.8% and will cause further headaches for the US Fed. The market is now digesting the potential for a 100bps (1%) interest rate hike later in July. The bond market’s reaction was muted compared to recent months, with markets looking through the headline data and focusing on the likely global slowdown which could ease inflationary pressures later in the year. President Biden said that US inflation was “unacceptably high” but stated that it is also “out-of-date” and doesn’t reflect the recent drop in oil and gas prices.

US earnings season kicked off, and initial results from some of the major US banks highlighted potential risks in the global economy. JP Morgan’s results came in below expectations with the bank boosting its reserves to cover potential future loan losses. Morgan Stanley missed profit estimates for the first time in nine quarters. It wasn’t all doom and gloom however, with Pepsico beating revenue and earnings forecasts – consumers are clearly not cutting back on things like fizzy drinks (Pepsi) even as prices rise!

A trend of 2022 has been the strength of the USD ($) versus a basket of global currencies. The currency is at a 20-year versus global currencies and during the week reached parity with the Euro (€). Sterling (£) continued its slide against the USD briefly falling below 1.18. The strength of the USD is a problem for countries who need to import food and energy (which is priced in USD). It’s part of the reason why the recent falls in oil prices are yet to be reflected at the pumps in the UK. Brent Crude oil prices have fallen 15% over the last month on global economic slowdown concerns. Copper, which is very economically sensitive, continued its slide this week, falling another 1.5% on Friday morning. The metal is now down 23% over the last month and 27% compared to one year ago. Gold has struggled of late and is heading for its 5^th weekly decline. The stronger USD has acted as a headwind for the precious metal.

There was a rare moment of sunshine for the UK economy with GDP rising 0.5% in May and returning to growth. This positive data was coupled with stronger than expected manufacturing and construction data.

The summer months are normally characterised by thin trading volumes and low volatility, as investors and workers go on holiday and take time off. However, with the current backdrop of high inflation and geo-political risks, there is little likelihood of a quiet summer. We believe in these volatile times active management and pro-active asset allocation can help support and insulate portfolios.

Andy Triggs, Head of Investments & Nathan Amaning, Investment Analyst

The Week In Markets – 2nd July – 8th July

July 8, 2022July 8, 2022

There seems only one place to start and that is with UK politics, following the dramatic course of events this week, which led to Boris Johnson stepping down as the Conservative party leader. A string of resigning MPs from Tuesday evening through to Thursday morning effectively made Johnson’s role untenable and forced his hand. It will be interesting to watch the race for the leadership role unfold over the coming weeks. Bookmakers’ early favourites for the role include Ben Wallace, Rishi Sunak, Tom Tugendhat and Penny Mordaunt.

The rather muted reaction in UK assets may have been a surprise to some, however, the likelihood is that a political uncertainty discount had already been applied to UK assets. Sterling actually rallied against the USD on Thursday, while UK equities advanced.

US equities have been strong this week, with the market rising for four consecutive days (Monday – Thursday), matching its best winning streak this year. US bond yields have moved higher this week, with the 10-yr US treasury yield back around the 3% mark, which is still 0.5% lower than the recent highs. The US 30-year mortgage rate fell to 5.3%, down from 5.7% a week ago, which is the largest drop since 2008. While the rate is still much higher than it was at the start of the year, it should provide some support to the housing market and make affordability better than it has been over the last month. US Mortgage applications have recently ticked up, although they are still 17% below last year’s levels. One would expect that the tighter mortgage conditions compared to 2021 and higher house prices would lead to slower house-price growth going forward

Global growth fears continue to hang over markets this week and it has put downward pressure on commodity prices, which have been in free-fall since mid-June. US Crude oil briefly dipped below $100 a barrel this week, while Brent crude oil prices dropped a staggering 11% on Tuesday. Economically sensitive copper remains under pressure and is down 20% over the last month. The weaker commodity prices should provide some much-needed relief on inflationary pressures.

However, EU Natural Gas has bucked the recent falls in commodities and has advanced on fears of Russia cutting supplies to Europe. The Nord Stream pipeline is due to shut for approximately 10 days due to ‘seasonal maintenance’, however there are fears the pipeline will not reopen. Germany has begun to ration hot water, dimmed its streetlights and shut down swimming pools, with all households being urged to cut energy use.

US Non-Farm Payroll data, released on Friday, came in stronger than expected with 372,000 jobs added to the US economy in June. The unemployment rate remained at 3.6%. The news will likely empower the US Fed to continue to raise rates in the near term, and this view was reflected in bond markets with yields rising (and therefore prices falling).

There was sad news to finish the week, with ex-Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe being shot and killed while giving a speech. Mr Abe had a strong reputation for his Abenomics policies which included increasing the nation’s money supply, increasing government spending and economic structural reforms aimed at reviving the stagnant economy.

The market moves this week once again pointed to the importance of diversification. The more growth focused equities, including technology, have been some of the stronger performers over the past seven days, while resources, infrastructure and gold, which helped prop up the portfolios in the first half of the year, have lagged.

Andy Triggs, Head of Investments & Nathan Amaning, Investment Analyst

The Week In Markets – 25th June – 1st July

July 1, 2022July 1, 2022

This week marked the end of an extremely difficult first half of the year in markets. As challenging as the market was, it is important to continue to be forward-looking, focusing on where markets can go, as opposed to where they are currently. A quick study of history can provide a glimmer of hope here. Since the Great Depression the US S&P 500 has fallen by over 15% in the first six months of the year on five occasions (six if you now include 2022). On each of the five previous occurrences, the S&P 500 posted positive returns for the second half of the year, with the average return being 23%.

Focusing solely on this week, equities continued their yo-yo performance, falling back and giving up most of last week’s gains. The main driver of this was not rising inflation but concerns over economic growth. Consumer confidence data from Europe and the US showed a deteriorating picture, which will likely flow through into weaker consumer spending in the coming months. A combination of high inflation (and future inflation expectations) alongside geopolitical risks have clearly knocked the consumer.

There was some positive news with regards to China’s COVID-19 curbs, with announcements that quarantine time for incoming travellers would be halved. On the ground we also saw Walt Disney’s Shanghai Disney Resort announce it would reopen on Thursday after being shut for three months. The apparent easing of restrictions and reopening of the world’s second largest economy should be supportive for global growth.

The European Central Bank forum on central banking has been taking place throughout the week, with key central bankers speaking. The recurrent theme was on their collective commitment to tackle inflation and attempt to bring it down closer to their 2% target. US Fed Chair Powell stated that he believed the US economy was in “strong shape” and could withstand higher interest rates without economic growth stalling, however, he did say they must accept a higher recession risk in order to tackle inflation. Bond markets continued to shift on their views on future interest rate policy, with the yield on the 10-yr US Treasury note falling below 3% on Thursday, while UK and European government bonds also saw steep decline in yields. The market now expects US interest rates to peak in March/April 2023 before coming down once more. The terminal rate is now below 3.5%, while two weeks ago it was closer to 4%.

The troubled UK economy showed little improvement this week with the nation posting a record current account deficit in Q1 2022. Sterling surprisingly didn’t really react to the news, although much was in the price already, with the currency down over 10% versus the USD in the first half of the year.

As investors it is important to recognise that markets are forward looking and not get too bogged down in the here and now, and instead focus on where asset prices could be in the next 1-3 years. With this mindset, value is starting to appear in a wide range of assets, following significant de-ratings over the first half of the year.

Andy Triggs, Head of Investments

The Week In Markets – 18th June – 24th June

June 24, 2022June 24, 2022

For most people this will have felt like just any other week, but as I sit here collecting my thoughts on what has happened, it feels like there has been a shift in market positioning and narrative. There were however some consistencies with previous weeks – elevated inflation – with UK CPI hitting 9.1% in May, a new 40-year high. Fuel prices are nearly 33% higher than May 2021, the largest annual jump in prices since 1989. This rise in inflation continues to raise pressure on households and intensifies demand for wage rises to offset higher prices.

Inflation aside, there were some different dynamics this week. Commodity prices, which have been on a tear this year, have been selling off aggressively. The falls have been broad based; wheat is down 13% over the past seven days, copper has fallen 11% and even oil is off over 10%. The reason for this is most likely due to the market pricing in a higher probability of a global slowdown/recession. In that environment, demand for commodities would fall and prices have adjusted to reflect this. It’s worth remembering the supply dynamics in the sector are still extremely tight, and that should be supportive of prices over the longer-term. Lower commodity prices, and in particular lower oil prices, may take some of the pressure off central banks as inflation may begin to moderate.

One of the biggest changes has been in bond markets. Jerome Powell, Chair of the US Fed, spoke to congress this week and declared that the Fed’s fight with inflation was “unconditional”. One might expect that bond yields would have risen (and therefore prices fallen) after such a statement, however, we saw global government bond yields collapse. The best explanation here again is that in a slowing global economy, inflation will begin to moderate, and the US Fed will not be able to take terminal interest rates as high. The yield on the 10-yr US Treasury bond was at 3.49% just 10 days ago but fell as low as 3% yesterday. Falling bond yields acted as a boost to the more growth focused equities, which have struggled this year. The tech-heavy Nasdaq index rallied around 1.5% yesterday. It’s interesting to see that the best performing funds in portfolios this week have been holdings in technology focused equities and UK government bonds, while the laggards have been holdings in resource equities – a complete role reversal compared to the last six months.

Economic data was generally weak, with US existing home sales falling to a two-year low. Housing affordability has tightened dramatically, as house prices have risen and mortgage rates jumped, so it is not a surprise to see housing activity slow. Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) data from Europe and the US came in well below expectations. US Manufacturing data was at the lowest level since June 2020 and services data was at a five-month low. The bad-news-is-good-news scenario seemed to be in play on Friday morning, with European and UK equities rising over 1% following the data releases.

This week once again pointed to the importance of diversification, with recent losers becoming winners and vice-versa. Our approach has always been to diversify across geography, style and asset class, tilting towards our preferred areas, as opposed to taking large portfolio positions. This is especially important at times of heightened volatility and uncertainty. By not losing in the short-term, you can win in the long run.

Andy Triggs, Head of Investments

The Week In Markets – 11th June – 17th June

June 17, 2022June 17, 2022

Central banks have been in the spotlight this week, with interest rate rises in the US and UK leading to further volatility across all asset classes.

After last week’s US inflation data surprised to the upside, all eyes were firmly on the US Fed’s meeting on Wednesday. In the run up to the meeting equities and bonds saw sharp price declines as markets digested the likelihood of a more hawkish approach. As expected, the US Fed raised interest rates by 0.75% – the highest single increase since 1994, taking US interest rates to 1.75%. There was an immediate relief rally following the meeting, although these gains were given up on Thursday’s trading session, with equities once again falling. The impact of higher interest rates is likely to cool the red-hot US housing market, with the popular 30-year fixed mortgage rate now above 6%, up from around 3.25% at the start of the year.

The Bank of England (BoE) followed suit on Thursday, increasing interest rates by 0.25%. This was the fifth consecutive interest rate rise by the BoE and takes rates to a 13-year high of 1.25%. The committee voted 6-3 in favour of a 0.25% rise, with three members voting for a 0.5% increase. With inflation already at 9%, the BoE have now raised their forecasts and predicted it will raise to 11% heading into winter. UK households are already bracing themselves for the projected increased energy prices. We’ve previously spoken about the surge in inflation being partly due to the continued Russia -Ukraine war, however there are domestic factors, including the tight labour market and the pricing strategies of firms. With UK unemployment falling to 3.8% and the number of vacancies rising to almost 1.3million, workers are demanding greater wages or moving to higher paid jobs. Employers are forced to pay bonuses to retain staff or hire new ones.

The impact of higher energy and food prices is a major headwind to consumers, and this was highlighted by a profit warning from ASOS, who said inflation is deterring consumers from purchases. The news sent the share tumbling by over 30%, leaving the stock price down over 60% in 2022.

The challenging environment of bonds and equities selling off together continued for much of the week. Bond markets experienced large moves with the US 10-yr Treasury yield reaching 3.49%, the highest level in over 10 years, before falling back later in the week. UK and European government bonds also saw large spikes in yields, providing further pain for bond holders. At an equity level, the US S&P 500 entered bear market territory, characterised as a drawdown of more than 20% from recent highs. To name a few stocks, PayPal has now tumbled almost 75% from its record high last July, Meta (Facebook) has fallen 57% from its 2021 high and Netflix remains the S&P’s worst performer down 72% year to date. These highly valued growth stocks have been badly punished as valuations have tumbled on the back of higher interest rates. In Netflix’s case they have also struggled to pass costs onto subscribers, with subscribers cancelling memberships at an alarming rate.

This has been a very difficult week to be invested in markets. As investors it can be challenging to not allow emotions to dominate decisions in times like this. It’s vital that we fall-back on our investment process and experience, while also maintaining a long-term investment time horizon. One only has to look back to March 2020; the world felt like a very gloomy place, yet it provided a great investment opportunity for investors.

Andy Triggs, Head of Investments & Nathan Amaning, Investment Analyst

The Week In Markets – 4th June – 10th June

June 10, 2022June 10, 2022

There is being fashionably late to the party and then there is the European Central Bank (ECB). Despite high levels of inflation and other central banks looking to tighten policy, the ECB had refrained from joining the party and until recently intimated that interest rates would not rise in 2022. On Thursday, however, Christine Lagarde, head of the ECB, signposted that they will raise rates in July, for the first time since 2011, and end its bond-buying stimulus program. This is being done in an effort to cool inflation, which is running at multi-decade highs in the Euro area.

The shift in approach from the ECB led to European equities falling and European government bond yields pushing higher. The yield on the 10-year German bund now stands at 1.43%, compared to this time last year when it was still in negative territory, yielding -0.25%.

Chinese equities have been somewhat of a bright spot over recent weeks, rallying strongly as COVID lockdown measures appeared to be easing. However, Shanghai and Beijing now look to be going back into a form of lockdown and mass-testing as the country’s dynamic zero-COVID policy is implemented. This news pulled down Chinese stocks and will create a headache for Chinese exporters once more, just as the Port of Shanghai was reporting numbers almost back to normal. The average waiting time for tankers at the port had fallen by almost 37 hours. This trend could reverse with lockdown measures returning.

Elsewhere in China there were rumours circulating this week that Ant Group’s failed initial public offering (IPO) may be revived. This would mark a sea change in China’s regulatory policy, which has been a headwind for sectors such as technology over the last 12-18 months. Chinese headline inflation data was reported at 2.1% on Friday, coming in slightly below consensus. With inflation seemingly under control in the world’s second largest economy, there is scope for interest rates to be cut further and stimulus measures to be implemented to help support the economy. We are beginning to witness this already, and it often boosts not just China but the global economy as well, albeit with a 10–12-month lag.

On domestic shores, it was once again Boris Johnson who stole the headlines, with the PM narrowly surviving a vote of no confidence on Monday. Despite remaining in leadership there are still question marks over how long he will last, with comparisons being drawn to Margaret Thatcher and Theresa May, who both resigned, even after coming through their own votes of no confidence.

Oil prices have been rising this week, in part due to China’s reopening and an expectation of a pick-up in demand. This has led to UK petrol prices rising, with the RAC group estimating that it would cost over £100 to fill up a 55-litre tank. Higher petrol prices act as a tax on the consumer and will negatively impact consumption in other parts of the economy.

Although the weather has certainly improved over the last week, the same cannot be said for flights around Europe. EasyJet have axed 72 flights today just as Britons were hoping for a summer break. British Airways have also cancelled almost 100 short haul flights from its main base London Heathrow. This has been caused by massive staff shortages. This follows news of rail strikes occurring from June 21^st to June 26^th. The Transport Salaried Staffs Association said its members on East and West Midlands trains were protesting over pay, conditions and job security.

The last piece of data this week, and one of the most important was US inflation, which showed inflation has yet to peak, coming in at 8.6%, a 40-year high. The elevated figure is likely to do little to deter the US Federal Reserve from raising interest rates by 0.5% at their next meeting.

The current backdrop continues to be challenging, with heightened volatility across equities and bonds. That being said, volatility does create opportunities, and we will look to pivot the portfolios as opportunities present themselves. At the moment that means making the portfolios increasingly diversified by adding to some of the defensive elements of the portfolios, at low valuations.

Andy Triggs, Head of Investments & Nathan Amaning, Investment Analyst

The Week In Markets – 21st May – 27th May

May 27, 2022May 27, 2022

“Upside Down” was a hit single for Diana Ross in 1980. There does seem to be parallels with the song and the current global economy, which was highlighted again this week through global central bank action.

Over the last 20 years or so inflation has been a problem for emerging markets, who have had to raise interest rates to contain inflation, while developed markets have typically experienced benign inflation. This year has been upside down and inside-out with developed markets plagued by high inflation and having to tighten policy, while emerging markets, having already begun hiking interest rates last year, have been in a much better position. The New Zealand central bank raised interest rates by 0.50% at the start of the week and indicated there was more to come. At the same time, the Russian central bank cut interest rates by 3%, citing a slowing inflation outlook and strong currency as the driver. Russia’s huge cut followed a surprise interest rate cut from China last week, a nation that is currently experiencing inflation levels of just over 2%.

Thankfully equity markets turned upside down this week, with the US equity market looking like ending an eight-week losing streak to end the week higher. Gains have extended across most regions this week with European equities on course for their best week in over two months. One of the major headwinds for global equities has been the inflation story and response from developed world central banks. It was interesting to see this week that Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic suggested a pause may be required in US interest rate rises in September. Investors are beginning to question whether the economy can withstand such aggressive Fed policy.

It wasn’t all rosy with the US equity market, as social media company Snap fell almost 40% after issuing a profit warning. The stock now trades below its IPO price in 2017. It’s another example of the market severely punishing companies for missing targets. We think this backdrop lends itself to active managers, who can carry out deep, fundamental research into a company’s financial statements and outlook.

In the UK the big news was saved for Thursday, with Chancellor Rishi Sunak announcing a windfall tax on energy firms, using this tax to help households with soaring living costs. Oil majors Shell and BP saw their share prices actually rise on the day, potentially driven by a 3% rise in the price of oil, which likely more than offsets their increased tax burden. The brent oil price pushed through $115 a barrel this week with continued concerns around supply. With sky high hydrocarbon prices and Europe’s desire to move away from Russian energy dependence there is a huge need for investment into renewable energy and this is likely to provide good investment opportunities going forward. Interestingly, some of the traditional energy companies are looking to utilise their high profit levels to pivot more into renewable energy. This was highlighted through Total’s proposed acquisition of the 5^th largest renewable player in the US on Wednesday.

Economic data has been mixed over the past seven days. There were bright spots in the UK, with retail sale rising month-on-month. Wage data showed that employers raised wages by around 4% over the three months to April. While this is higher compared to recent years, it is still below the current inflation levels. US Durable goods orders, which measures industrial activity and is used as an economic indicator by many investors, came in slightly below expectations. US Q1 GDP was revised down to -1.5%, showing the economy contracted slightly more than previously thought.

Despite what appears to be disappointing data, the US equity market has been strong this week, and hints to what was alluded to in last week’s note – that bad news may actually be good news – that it prevents central banks from tightening policy too much or too quickly and allows the global economy to operate in a low-rate environment for longer.

Andy Triggs, Head of Investments & Nathan Amaning, Investment Analyst

The Week In Markets – 14th May – 20th May

May 20, 2022May 20, 2022

As the old Chinese curse goes (paraphrased slightly); may you comment on interesting markets. Accordingly, having drummed my fingers on a weekly basis through the dead calm of last summer, I’m now looking back on those beige days with teary-eyed nostalgia.

Because this week has – so far- been brutal. At least it was if you’re looking at a global stock market index: down about four percent with a day left to play.

As I’m sure you’re aware, this isn’t the first grim week of the year. Far from it; the market news flow has a distinctly slow and grinding feel to it. This stands it apart from other recent negative episodes, such as the pandemic sell-off in 2020, which were sharp, but relatively short-lived.

But look deeper within the market data, and you’ll find other “interesting” titbits that make this week’s movements stand out.

In stark contrast to much of this year, and most of the last fifteen years too, this week’s nosedive was led by the US: Up until Thursday at least, American shares were down by almost five per cent for the week. But everywhere else, including the UK? Not so bad – generally off by a per cent or two, and they’re erasing much of that in Friday’s early trading (UK equities are still positive for the year, amazingly).

This is bordering on weird. If US equities tumble, European and Asian shares usually follow suit, and with more gusto too. But not this time. Has the long run of US market exceptionalism come to an end?

Another change was that America’s sell off was truly inclusive (and not in a good way). For most of the year it’s been tech and other growth shares getting walloped, but this week everything joined in, including previously immune ‘value’ shares.

Commentators are putting this down to investors beginning to worry not just about inflation and interest rate rises (which growth stocks hate like cats hate swimming), but also an economic slowdown, which isn’t great for anything – including value stocks.

Is this a start of a new trend, or just a blip? Absent a crystal ball, only time will tell.

I don’t want to leave you on a note of bad news, so how about a bad-news-might-be-good-news vibe instead?

We heard this week that global fund managers had raised cash to their highest levels since soon after the 9/11 attacks. Ominous as it sounds, you’ll note that they didn’t raise cash to their highest levels just before 9/11 (it would have been mighty suspicious if they had), just as they hadn’t raised cash to their highest levels before this year’s sell-off – which would have been useful given what we’ve just seen.

So, this is something – jumping in and out of the market – they’re clearly not good at (dirty secret: nobody is). Perhaps, even, it’s a contrarian indicator that news has got as bad as it’s going to get? Well, let’s see what next week brings.

In the meantime, have a great weekend,

Simon Evan-Cook

(On Behalf of Raymond James, Barbican)

The Week In Markets – 7th May – 13th May

May 13, 2022May 13, 2022

The heightened volatility that has plagued markets over recent weeks continued over the past five days. A theme for this year has been the positive correlation between equities and bonds, which has proved challenging. However, this week, despite seeing weakness in equity markets, bond prices (at the time of writing) are higher.

Starting with the UK, we received weaker than expected GDP data, which showed the economy contracted by 0.1% during March. With low consumer confidence and high inflation, demand was weaker than anticipated. Higher household energy prices from April will likely cause a drag on next month’s GDP figures and we could see a further contraction in the economy. April’s retail sales figures were weak, as the cost-of-living squeeze impacted spending. However, spending on travel and international holiday bookings has surged above pre-pandemic levels, with people keen to travel abroad once more. Spending on hotels, accommodation and resorts was 16% higher compared with April 2019. At a market level, UK equities have struggled this week, although equities are rebounding at the time of writing. Government bond yields have fallen this week (prices rise) as investors have become increasingly nervous about the economic outlook for the UK following poor GDP data.

US inflation data on Wednesday provided mixed messages. Inflation came in at 8.3%, which was lower than the previous month’s 8.5% figure. However, core inflation, which strips out volatile items such as energy and food, was up 0.6% month-on-month, versus March’s figure of 0.3%. US equities ended Wednesday in negative territory once more, with the tech-heavy Nasdaq index down over 3%. US government bond yields have fallen below 3% this week as investors begin to question whether the central bank will be able to engineer a ‘soft’ landing – that is cooling inflation without stalling the economy. Rising bond yields have proved a headwind for equity markets, and there is the potential for the recent fall in bond yields to begin to provide some support to US equities. At a business level US companies continue to trade well, with high levels of earnings and revenue ‘beats’ for Q1 2022 earnings season so far.

Russian tensions with western Europe looked like escalating on Friday with Finland’s leaders stating that their country should join Nato. The immediate retaliation from Russia is likely to be the switching off of Russian gas supplies to the country, pushing European gas prices higher. Rising energy prices have put pressure on governments in Europe and the UK to provide some form of assistance. Spain have looked to tackle this with plans announced for a price cap that limits gas prices used to produce electricity. It will be interesting to see if other nations follow suit.

Crypto markets were sent into a tailspin this week with the popular Luna coin losing over 98%. The estimated losses stand at around $15bn. The incredible decline highlights some of the risks of this immature asset class and is why we do not yet consider it as an investable asset.

The last month or so has been a particularly challenging period with price declines across the board. Economic data is beginning to indicate that US inflation may be peaking, and this could provide support for all asset classes. We continue to tread a path of diversification across geography and asset class, while seeking out long-term investment opportunities. One area we currently like is infrastructure. Not only does infrastructure offer an element of inflation protection, while also historically providing better downside protection than equities, we think the sector will benefit from two long-term structural tailwinds; the energy transition and energy security.

Andy Triggs | Head of Investments, Raymond James, Barbican