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The Week In Markets – 14th January – 20th January 2023

Icy weather and plunging temperatures have swept across Europe this week. The fall in temperatures has been mirrored in equity markets, which have witnessed a modest pullback following a very strong start to the year.

Despite the cold snap of weather, European natural gas looks set to record its longest weekly run of falling prices since the beginning of 2020. With elevated storage levels of natural gas and an expectation of warmer weather returning, gas prices have continued to decline. This should be good news for most businesses and consumers. We have seen a resurgence in European equities of late as the worst-case scenario of the area running of out gas now looks increasingly unlikely. We have witnessed a similar story in the UK – lower gas and petrol prices are a boost to the consumer, and while the outlook is still not particularly rosy, the slightly improved conditions have led to a sharp rebound in UK consumer stocks.

UK inflation data this week showed a slight easing in inflation which came in at 10.5%, down from 10.7% in November. Some of the biggest drivers of inflation were food and drink prices, which rose at their fastest rate since 1977. The high levels of inflation mean a further 0.5% interest rate rise is likely at the next Bank of England (BoE) meeting, taking the headline rate to 4%.

UK retail sales data was slightly disappointing, showing an unexpected 1% fall in December from the previous month, indication that consumers are reigning in spending on the back of high inflation and an uncertain economic outlook. We witnessed similar poor retail sales data from the US last week, showing this is a global issue as opposed to UK centric.

The trend of disappointing data this week was further evident with the New York state factory index significantly dropping, pointing towards weakness in factory activity at a national level. While the weak data was bad news for equity markets, we have seen bond markets continue their strong start to the year. Concerns around the global economy have led to falling yields (rising prices) for developed market government bonds. This has been driven by the view that the US Fed will now only raise interest rates by 0.25% at the next meeting as opposed to 0.5%, while the end of the overall hiking cycle appears to be approaching.

The gold price held firm this week, reaching eight-month highs. The rally in January looks to be driven by a combination of a weaker US dollar, elevated inflation, and declining US real yields. The declining US dollar and moderation in bond yields has also benefitted emerging market equities, coupled with the faster than anticipated reopening of China.

The slight pullback in markets this week should not detract from what has been a positive start to 2023. The leaders within the portfolios this year have included some of the alternative asset classes, including gold and infrastructure. It highlights to us the importance of being well diversified when constructing portfolios and looking beyond simply allocating to equities and bonds.

Andy Triggs, Head of Investments

Risk warning: With investing, your capital is at risk. The value of investments and the income from them can go down as well as up and you may not recover the amount of your initial investment. Certain investments carry a higher degree of risk than others and are, therefore, unsuitable for some investors.

The Week In Markets – 7th January – 13th January

The strong start to the year continued into this week with both equities and bonds rallying. Well received US inflation data, coupled with stronger than expected UK GDP data has supported the thesis that inflation will continue to fall, and central bank policy will become more accommodative, while the positive economic growth coming from the UK offers some hope that any recession or slowdown will only be mild.

UK GDP data was released this morning, coming in above forecasts of -0.2% at 0.1% (month-on-month for November). Year-on-year for November was also 0.2%, confirming modest growth and reducing the chance that the UK has already dipped into recession. The men’s football World Cup had a significant part to play in the positive growth exhibited by the UK as pubs and bars were flooded, boosting the economy. While growth is positive, UK core inflation still remains high at 6.3%. UK Chancellor Mr Hunt believes their plan is working with the promise made to “halve inflation this year so we can get the economy growing again”.

US inflation was the most anticipated data release this week. Inflation came in at 6.5% (year-on-year) for December, lower than the previous figure of 7.1%. This is the sixth consecutive month of lower inflation data. On a month-on month basis for December inflation came in at -0.1%.  The inflation data has led the market to now price in only a 0.25% increase of interest rates at the next US Fed meeting, as opposed to the 0.5% rise that was previously expected. It appears that the aggressive interest rate hikes in 2022 are now feeding through into the inflation data releases. We are also seeing supply chain pressures ease, further supported by the reopening of China.

Germany appears to have significant labour shortages, and more than half of Germany’s companies are struggling to fill vacancies. The biggest reason is seemingly due to a lack of skilled workers with almost two million vacancies unfilled, this is estimated to be nearly Є100 billion of output foregone. The skilled worker shortage appears to be within the mechanical and electrical engineering sector. The planned energy transition and infrastructure build out within the country could be delayed due to these labour shortages.

Volkswagen (VW) reported its lowest sales last year for over a decade as China Covid lockdowns and the Russia / Ukraine war halted supply chains.  The German group, whose brands range from VW to Audi and Bentley delivered 8.3 million vehicles to customers last year. However, chip shortage issues have led to a very high order backlog with hopes that China’s reopening will lead to a production increase.

At the start of each year there are many economic commentators predicting what might occur in the year ahead. While we think making bold predictions is a dangerous game, we were struck by a comment in Havelock’s latest commentary as it aligns with many of our own philosophies and beliefs (their global equity fund is in portfolios) – “We will strive to remain humble and move forward wanting, as always, to own a portfolio that will be robust in a range of future economic scenarios.”

Nathan Amaning, Investment Analyst

Risk warning: With investing, your capital is at risk. The value of investments and the income from them can go down as well as up and you may not recover the amount of your initial investment. Certain investments carry a higher degree of risk than others and are, therefore, unsuitable for some investors.

The Month In Markets – December 2022

The Month In Markets – December 2022

Investors hoping for a Santa Rally this December were left disappointed. However, after a strong October and November global equities did still post a positive final quarter. The year in itself will be remembered as an extremely challenging period, with weakness in both equities AND bond markets.

The Santa Rally – the so-called phenomenon of equity markets performing well in December does actually have some supporting evidence. Analysis of monthly returns dating back to 1926 (for US stocks) showed that the month of December had the highest probability of producing positive returns. For those interested, September was the month with the lowest probability of positive returns (although this was still above 50%).

As the chart above shows, equity markets across the globe trended downwards in December, with the US market being the worst performer. Unpacking what happened, it seemed the US Fed were once again the main drivers of markets.

US inflation data, which was released mid-month, carried on the very recent trend of slowing at a faster pace than the market anticipated. US CPI for November (released in December) showed year-on-year inflation at 7.1%, lower than the expected 7.3% and the previous reading of 7.7%. A month earlier, US equity markets rose around 5% in one day on similar inflation data, however, this month there was no equivalent response. Coupled with lower inflation was a reduction in the size of interest rate hikes from the US Fed, who raised rates by 0.5%, as opposed to the recent 0.75% hikes. It’s fair to say that many investors would have expected lower inflation and smaller interest rate hikes to be positive for equities. However, it was US Fed Chair Powell’s speech that spooked markets and poured cold water on the Santa Rally. He stated that he did not believe that policy was yet restrictive enough (therefore meaning further interest rate hikes would occur) and that the central bank would need to be very confident that inflation was on the right path before considering any interest rate cuts. Importantly, the projections from the US Fed for where policy will be in 2023 showed they didn’t expect to cut interest rates this year. For investors who had positioned for a ‘Fed Pivot’ this hawkish language was bad news and we witnessed both bonds and equities sell-off.

Moving to China, we saw the country begin to ease controls and strict lockdown measures at the start of the month. Officially, the Chinese leadership team stated that the Covid-19 variants were becoming weaker and therefore it was safe to remove certain restrictions. However, after recent widespread protests there is a view that Xi Jinping was forced to change his stance given the level of these civil uprisings. While China re-opening should be good for economic growth, there are lingering concerns that a spike in cases could lead to further COVID variants and pose a global risk once more. Leaked reports from the country showed that they estimated 250 million people had caught COVID in the first 20 days of December. Many countries including the US have since implemented a China covid rule, ensuring travelers undertake mandatory testing before arrival.

There were interesting moves in the energy markets in December. The crude oil price dipped below $75 a barrel and was lower than it was during the start of the year (before Russia invaded Ukraine). The regular drivers amongst the readers will have noticed falling prices at the pumps – the writer can now find unleaded petrol below £1.40 a litre! The falling petrol prices should help the consumer, while it will also act as a deflationary force in upcoming inflationary data this quarter. European natural gas prices were extremely volatile during the month. With a cold snap initially sweeping across Europe we saw a spike in natural gas prices as consumption picked up and concerns mounted regarding suitable storage levels. However, the cold snap was immediately followed by a period of much more mild weather throughout Europe, and this led to a sharp reversal in natural gas prices. So far it seems the concerns of Europe running out of gas have been overdone and storage levels are at seasonal highs currently (88% full). Lower energy prices across Europe will have a positive impact on both consumers and businesses as we head into 2023.

As we look ahead into 2023 and beyond there is early evidence of inflation peaking and indeed beginning to trend down and this is likely to be a positive for asset prices. We believe it is unlikely that interest rate policy across most developed markets will be as aggressive in 2023 as it was this year, with the inflation shock now largely behind us and heavily priced in to assets. That being said, interest rates, at current levels will still pose headwinds for consumers and the housing market and as such we have held off increasing risk in portfolios, despite a better inflation outlook and much lower asset valuations. While diversification was hard to come by in 2022, with equities and bonds both falling, we believe correlations will begin to normalise going forward, however it is also important to hold additional asset classes for diversification, such as gold and infrastructure.

Appendix

5-year performance chart

Risk warning: With investing, your capital is at risk. Opinions constitute our judgement as of this date and are subject to change without warning. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. This article is intended for informational purposes only and no action should be taken or refrained from being taken as a consequence without consulting a suitably qualified and regulated person.

Andy Triggs

Head of Investments, Raymond James, Barbican

2023 Outlook

Our latest Investment Strategy Quarterly discusses the potential opportunities and challenges the new year may bring. With features broadly assessing the outlook for 2023, from an analysis of global developed markets to a search for context and opportunities against the backdrop of an economic slowdown. Read all this and more in Investment Strategy Quarterly: 2023 Outlook.

The Week In Markets – 3rd January – 6th January 2023

We would like to start this weekly note by wishing everyone a happy New Year. This has certainly been a busy first week back in markets with various data releases.

UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak delivered his first speech of 2023 where he outlined five key targets for 2023. These include halving inflation, growing the economy, reducing debt, cutting NHS waiting times and stopping migrant boats crossing the border. The speech was described as “high on ambition but low in detail” with Mr Sunak making a bold demand that the public judge his premiership on the results achieved. Currently the opposition Labour Party hold a strong lead in the polls to win next year’s election, however Sunak will be hoping to rebuild trust in the Conservative Party.

In December we saw the US Fed slow down its aggressive rate hike trend and this led to a slower 50bps rise. The meeting minutes from December’s meeting were released on Wednesday. The key points were that policymakers are still focused on taming inflation that threatens to run hotter than anticipated and wanted to eliminate any “misperception” that their commitment to fighting inflation was wavering. The next phase for the Fed is to balance its fight against rising prices with the risk of slowing down the global economy too much. Their next meeting is scheduled for 31st January, where another 0.5% rise is expected.

This afternoon we have seen non-farm payrolls for December come in hot as the US economy continued its strong run of job growth, adding 223k jobs. Unemployment is also down to 3.5%, beating the forecasted 3.7%. Government data showed there were 10.45 million job openings at the end of November, this translated to around 1.74 jobs for each unemployed person. This comes as a surprise to the market as major tech companies such as Twitter, Salesforce and more recently Amazon continue to cut thousands of workers after “over-hiring” during the 2020 pandemic.

On brighter news in Germany, inflation eased in December for a second consecutive month. Households received a one-off payment in December to cover energy prices and this had a downward effect on prices. Core inflation (excludes food and energy costs) still remains high, and this has created doubts in economists minds that a continued slowdown is not a given. President Nagel of the Bundesbank predicted that inflation levels would drop to 7% over 2023 before declining significantly in 2024.

Inflation in France also dropped in December, falling to 6.7%, down from a record high a month earlier. This is another sign that a mild winter and slowing energy prices are aiding Europe to overcome the inflation crisis. France has managed to keep inflation lower than other European countries due to government limits on regulated gas and power prices.

Falling inflation data in Europe helped propel European equities. After a strong final quarter of 2022, the unloved equity market has had a strong start in 2023, with the Euro Stoxx index rising close to 3% this week. UK equities have also had a strong start to the year, with both the FTSE 100 and more domestically focused FTSE 250 rising. The US market has been the outlier this week, with the headline index struggling, being dragged down by large falls in stocks such as Tesla, which fell nearly 14% on Tuesday, after declining 65% in 2022.

It was a mixed start to 2023 for commodity markets, with gold nudging higher while oil continued its general downtrend of recent months. Crude oil is currently trading around $73 a barrel, $5 lower than 12 months ago and considerably lower than recent highs of $120 a barrel in March 2022. This weakness in oil is likely to feed into the upcoming inflation data releases and should further support the view that inflation (in the US at least) has now peaked and will fall this year.

As we look forward to this year, a fund manager reminded us to “never waste a good crisis”. 2022 was a tough year across most asset classes and regions however this has created opportunities and with strong portfolio diversification and active management we believe that the outlook is positive for long term investors.

Andrew Triggs, Head of Investments & Nathan Amaning, Investment Analyst

Risk warning: With investing, your capital is at risk. The value of investments and the income from them can go down as well as up and you may not recover the amount of your initial investment. Certain investments carry a higher degree of risk than others and are, therefore, unsuitable for some investors.

Restoring credibility

Financial markets continued their revival from the early summer lows through November as investors’ perceptions regarding the risks prevalent throughout 2022 diminished somewhat. That those risks had not disappeared completely was evidenced by violent protests breaking out across China at the end of the month in response to the new Chinese government’s apparent desire to persist with its aggressive “zero Covid” policy.

The Week In Markets – 5th November – 11th November

This week has been anything but dull with US midterm elections, US inflation data and UK GDP dominating headlines.

We will start with the US midterms. There was an expectation that we might witness a strong victory for the Republicans, however, the results have been much tighter than expected, with the final results still in the balance. It looks like the Republicans will win control of the House of Representatives, while the race for the Senate is too close to call at this stage. As results begun to filter through on Wednesday US equities sold off heavily, presumably on concerns the Republicans could block much of Biden’s plans by holding the House of Representatives – political gridlock is rarely a good outcome for markets.

By Thursday however any weakness in markets was well and truly reversed, driven by US inflation data that undershot expectations. The headline inflation figure came in at 7.7%, below the expected 7.9% and lower than September’s print of 8.2%. Importantly the month-on-month inflation (and core inflation) also undershot consensus views. The narrative now has quickly shifted to the possibility that inflation has peaked and the impact of higher interest rates are beginning to work. This will mean the US Federal Reserve will be able to slow their pace of future interest rate hikes, with the terminal rate now expected to be lower than 5%.

To say the news was well received by the market would be a huge understatement. Equities, bonds and commodities all joined the party, with the only real loser being the USD, which slumped over 3% versus GBP on Thursday. The S&P 500 index rose over 5.5% on Thursday, with the more tech-heavy Nasdaq index climbing over 7%. This was the best day for US equities since April 2020. UK and European equities also rallied in the afternoon. The more domestically focused UK FTSE 250 index climbed over 3% while the larger cap FTSE 100 index rose over 1%. Sterling strength acted as a headwind for multi-national businesses in the UK. A week ago, GBP/USD was 1.11, at the time of writing it has risen above 1.17. Improvements in the inflation and interest rate landscape was music to bond markets ears, with yields plummeting (prices rising) across the board. The yield on the US 10-year Treasury bond fell over 30bps, marking the second biggest daily drop since March 2009.

The gold price has risen over 5% in the past week, in part driven by the weaker USD. There have been a cohort of investors that saw cryptocurrencies as a digital replacement for gold. However, investors were reminded of the risk with crypto with the likely collapse of FTX – a cryptocurrency exchange. The founder, Sam Bankman-Fried is estimated to have seen his personal wealth fall by $16bn, while investors in the exchange are nursing huge losses. The company was valued at $32bn during the last round of fundraising.

Staying with US data, the initial jobless claims data was higher than expected, which helped support the view that higher interest rates are beginning to have an impact and the US Fed may slow their interest rate hikes. Jobs data will make for interesting reading over the coming weeks, with Meta (facebook) announcing jobs cuts of 11,000 on Wednesday. We also expect employment in construction to fall as higher mortgage rates lead to a slowdown in new residential construction.

UK Q3 GDP data was disappointing, showing the economy contracted from July-September; the only G7 nation so far to report a contraction for Q3. In more bad news for the UK, it is now the only G7 nation where GDP has not recovered to pre-pandemic levels. Despite the disappointing news, the FTSE 250 index was up over 1% on Friday morning, carrying on the rally from Thursday.

Time will tell whether this week’s big moves are the start of a sustained recovery or another bear market rally, like the summer months. While it is pleasing that inflation is showing signs of peaking, we are also mindful that some of the global economic data is beginning to deteriorate and as such it is prudent to maintain asset class, country and currency diversification in portfolios.

Andy Triggs, Head of Investments

Risk warning: With investing, your capital is at risk. The value of investments and the income from them can go down as well as up and you may not recover the amount of your initial investment. Certain investments carry a higher degree of risk than others and are, therefore, unsuitable for some investors.

The Month In Markets – October 2022

The Month In Markets – October 2022

If the UK was the problem for September, China was the problem child during October, with concerns around the world’s second largest economy dragging down Emerging Market and Asian benchmarks. As investors, the recent country specific woes of the UK and China are evidence as to why we try to diversify portfolio risk not just by asset class and sector, but importantly, also by country.

For those that regularly read these monthly pieces, you may notice that the best performing index from the chart above, ICE BofA Sterling Corporate (UK investment grade bonds), was in fact, the worst performing index in September. UK government bonds, which fell around 10% in September, also rebounded to end October up over 3%. It is a timely reminder about the risks of performance chasing and simply selling losers and buying winners. It also highlights why we think periodic rebalancing of portfolios is important. This process allows for natural profit taking from the better performing assets and allocating proceeds to the laggards within portfolios. The value of rebalancing really kicks in during extreme volatility.

So what caused the reversal in UK bonds? A big part of it was the changing political landscape. We began the month with Liz Truss as Prime Minister and Kwasi Kwarteng as Chancellor, and ended the month with Rishi Sunak as PM and Jeremy Hunt as Chancellor. The new PM and Chancellor appear to be much more focused on balancing the UK books and have ultimately reversed all of the mini-budget tax cuts, hinting that taxes may in fact rise. This more responsible fiscal approach was well received by markets, the result being a fall in borrowing costs for the government and a rebound in GBP, particularly against USD, with sterling strengthening over 3% during October. It is unlikely to be plain sailing for the new PM; the more fiscally responsible path he and Hunt are pursuing is likely to be a headwind for economic growth. Spending cuts and higher taxes will hurt the consumer. The main positive for growth is that with falling borrowing costs we may see mortgage rates begin to come down, and while they will still be considerably higher than in recent years, they should at least be lower than was forecast under Liz Truss’ watch.

As well as a change in UK political risk, there was also likely some mispricing opportunities that enticed investors to allocate to areas such as sterling corporate bonds. Many pension schemes faced solvency issues following on from the mini-budget and had to sell assets in order to raise cash and meet margin calls. Sterling corporate bonds were caught up in the fire sale, and we believe the huge selling pressure created mispricing opportunities for long-term investors. Part of the moves in October will have been driven by buyers stepping in, taking advantage of the forced selling and picking up high quality bonds at multi-year high yields.

While UK and developed markets in general had a positive month, the big laggards were Emerging Markets and Asian equities, which were dragged down by China. Towards the end of the month, it was confirmed that Xi Jingping, leader of the Chinese Communist Party secured a third five-year term, discarding with previous custom in which his predecessor stood down after 10 years. What spooked markets was an apparent change in Xi’s approach from the previous 10 years. In appointing his inner circle, the seven-strong Standing Committee is made up of his close allies, which means Xi will have little push back against any of his policies. These allies have also replaced more market-friendly, open-economy committee members. There is concern that over the next five-year term Xi will be less market friendly in his approach. The Covid-Zero policy is one example of this, or his new focus on “Common Prosperity” – an attempt to redistribute wealth which could lead to more regulation on certain sectors and industries. The Hang Seng Index (Hong Kong) fell over 6% on the news of Xi’s re-appointment, the largest one day fall since 2008, with the index returning to levels seen in April 2009. The Chinese currency also retreated, falling to 14-year lows versus the USD.

There were also immediate concerns about China’s economy, with the country delaying the release of third quarter GDP. The official data was released eight days late, and while it was higher than expected, investors doubted the credibility of the data given the unprecedented delays in it being released.

During the month we had the release of Q3 earnings and there were some interesting trends coming from the US. The mega-cap tech companies such as Microsoft, Meta (facebook), Alphabet (Google) and Amazon all released disappointing results which led to big pull backs in share prices. During the initial COVID-crisis these companies were major beneficiaries, and their share prices did exceptionally well. However, it appears in this more traditional slowdown their business models will not be immune to the headwinds with growth rates and revenues likely to slow.

The month in general had a wide range of dispersion in returns between asset classes and geographical regions. If diversification is not sufficient investors can be caught out by the heightened volatility and country specific risks that we have witnessed in September (UK) and October (China). Our approach of seeking genuine diversification in portfolios should provide a high probability of avoiding the worst outcomes in markets. As we have written about previously, we believe not losing in the short-term leads to winning in the longer-term.

Andy Triggs

Head of Investments, Raymond James, Barbican

Appendix

5-year performance chart

Risk warning: With investing, your capital is at risk. Opinions constitute our judgement as of this date and are subject to change without warning. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. This article is intended for informational purposes only and no action should be taken or refrained from being taken as a consequence without consulting a suitably qualified and regulated person.

The Week In Markets – 29th October – 4th November

Halloween came and went on Monday with relative calm; however, it was US Fed Chair Jerome Powell who spooked markets later in the week.

The month of October closed on Monday, and it marked a strong month in assets, rebounding from a very challenging September. In the US the Dow Jones Industrial Average equity index recorded its best month since 1976, up 14%. The broader S&P 500 index rose an impressive 8% in local currency, although for sterling investors, such was the recovery in GBP, the return was closer to 4.5%.

After such a strong October, the focus shifted to US and UK central banks, who met on Wednesday and Thursday respectively. As anticipated, the US increased rates by 0.75%, taking the headline interest rate to 4%. Equities initially reacted favourably, however, during the press conference Powell made a series of hawkish comments, leading markets to believe interest rates would have to rise further still and with-it equities quickly reversed gains to end the day heavily in the red. The news also sent US government bond yields higher, with the two-year bond now yielding over 4.7%.

The Bank of England (BoE) followed suit on Thursday, raising rates by 0.75%, with the headline interest rate now at 3%. It was the largest individual hike since 1992 and interest rates are now at their highest since November 2008. While the US central bank were very hawkish in their language, the BoE struck a much more dovish tone, saying the peak in interest rates in the UK will be lower than what the market has anticipated. The BoE delivered a very gloomy message with their outlook for the UK economy, saying it expects the UK to experience the longest recession on record, with the unemployment rate expected to nearly double by 2025. Markets are forward looking, the news of a potential UK recession was not new news, and the reaction from UK equities has so far been fairly muted. There was however a reaction in currency markets, with GBP shedding around 2% versus the USD on the back of what could begin to be diverging interest rate policy.

Unemployment data from the Eurozone was positive this week, showing the current strength in labour markets is not just confined to the US or UK. Indeed, Greek unemployment, which was nearly 30% in 2014, is now at 11.8%. There was consensus beating unemployment rates from Spain and Italy. It is worth remembering unemployment data is a lagging indicator and it is likely to deteriorate as economies slow. Staying with employment, the once bullet proof technology-focused companies have begun to freeze or indeed cut jobs. Amazon has frozen any corporate hires for the rest of the year, while Apple has frozen hires outside of research and development (R&D). Twitter, which has recently been acquired by Elon Musk, has gone one step further and is expected to begin laying off staff as soon as today. At a national level, the release of US non-farm payroll jobs data this afternoon showed an additional 261,000 jobs had been added to the economy, beating expectations for the seventh straight month. This positive employment data was well received by the markets with US equities opening up over 1%.

It has been a very strong week for Chinese equities, with an estimated $1 trillion added to the value of stocks this week. Rumours of an easing in China’s zero-COVID policy and hopes of softening tensions with the US boosted the market. The prospect of China re-opening lifted commodity prices with copper up over 6% on Friday, while mining companies rose; Anglo American leading the UK large cap index higher today.

The up-and-down week is a reminder of the difficulty of trying to time markets. Our preference instead is to focus on time in the markets. That being said, we have used the recent volatility in bond markets to make changes which we will feel improve the defensive characteristics of the portfolios, while still providing attractive long-term return profiles.

Andy Triggs, Head of Investments

Risk warning: With investing, your capital is at risk. The value of investments and the income from them can go down as well as up and you may not recover the amount of your initial investment. Certain investments carry a higher degree of risk than others and are, therefore, unsuitable for some investors.

Peace in our time?

Even those with the longest careers in the financial markets are struggling to remember a year quite as tumultuous as 2022 has proved to be. Military conflict in Ukraine and sabre-rattling over Taiwan have made headline news all year and served to intensify volatility across all international financial markets.

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