Athletes at the Olympic Winter Games will either taste the thrill of victory or the agony of defeat. The same can be said for investors, as the easy victories over the last two years will become more challenging and hard fought in the year ahead.
Budget Newsletter
Less than eight months ago, Rishi Sunak presented a Budget that was anticipating the ending of the pandemic’s impact on the UK economy. He announced extensions and end dates for the furlough scheme, the self-employed income support scheme, reduced VAT for hospitality and the £20 a week uplift to Universal Credit. To finance some of that expenditure, the Chancellor also revealed a 6% increase in corporation tax, deferred until 2023.
The Week in Markets – 4 – 10 September
Global equities reversed this week, ending a long winning run. When markets have dropped, but there’s no clear reason why, it’s traditional for us market reporters to put it down to “profit-taking” then break early for lunch. But on this occasion, it’s worth taking a quick tour of the regions, as differing trends are playing out.
To understand what’s happened to a global equity index, the first place to look is always the US. American equities punch well above their weight in world stock markets: while their economy makes up less than a third of the globe’s, their companies represent double that amount in a global equity index. So they usually dictate the global tone. This week the consensus is that investors are worrying about the Federal Reserve beginning to slow the pace of stimulus. It isn’t yet overly clear why they’re worrying this week more than last, but that’s the mystery of markets for you.
If investors in U.S. equities are worried about this, then holders of British and Continental European shares are even more concerned: share prices on this side of The Pond have had an altogether soggier week. Looking at the winners and losers in the fund world, “value” funds have fared worse than “growth” funds, which implies investors are becoming less convinced that broad-based economic recovery and/or inflation are what we’re headed for.
The stand-out market this week has been Japan. For most of this year, it’s seemed as if investors had simply forgotten that Japan existed; its market has flatlined while most others raced upwards. But the recent resignation of Prime Minister Suga has jolted their memory, and talk of new leaders with new cheque books helped the Tokyo index to defy the wider gloom; it has rallied by 4% in just a week. (This is why Japanese equities form a useful part of a global portfolio – it’s good to have different parts doing different things at different times, and Japan often marches to its own tune).
Finally, we hop across the sea to China, where gaming giants Tencent and Netease were called in for another telling off from Beijing officials. Having already been on the receiving end of one share-walloping lecture earlier in the summer, they were again chided to “profoundly understand the importance and urgency of preventing minors from online game addiction.” Their shares promptly tanked again, dragging other tech giants with them, and turning what had been a mildly positive week for Asia Ex-Japan shares into a negative one.
And now a market scoop: The success of these tactics duly noted, the Evan-Cook household, which is similarly blighted by gaming-hooked minors, will henceforth move to the communist governance model. Sadly, at the time of writing, the US and Japanese markets are closed, so you’ll have to wait for next week’s report to hear how hard this hits shares in Microsoft and Nintendo.
In the meantime, have a great weekend.
Simon Evan-Cook
(On Behalf of Raymond James Barbican)
With investing, your capital is at risk. The value of investments and the income from them can go down as well as up and you may not recover the amount of your initial investment. Certain investments carry a higher degree of risk than others and are, therefore, unsuitable for some investors.
The Week In Markets – 7 August – 13 August
With a new football season upon us, some brave managers will adopt the approach of attack being the best form of defence. It seems President Biden is taking a similar approach in his response to COVID-19, with spending and stimulus measures being viewed as the best form of defence against the havoc created by the virus.
The Senate Democrats released a vast $3.5 trillion budget resolution on Monday, which was effectively approved on Wednesday, meaning the budget could be passed over the next few weeks or months, with little the Republican opposition can do to prevent it.
The timing of the budget is interesting, given the US economy has recently returned to pre-pandemic levels following the release of Q2 GDP last week. With the economy recovering, inflation running at elevated levels and jobs being added back at an impressive pace, some will question whether such stimulus is required, or whether it should be saved for the next downturn. Will this lead to more persistent inflation? The market is clearly dismissing this scenario, with bond yields still historically low and little expectation of rate rises in the near term, even with inflation above target in US, UK and Europe. In Germany we have just seen inflation reported at 3.8% year-on-year, a 27 year high. Yet despite this, investors are still willing to lend to the German government at deeply negative rates, with the yield on the 10 year bund at -0.46%.
With rising inflation, low interest rates and low bond yields, it is strange that the gold price continues to lag, with the precious metal falling at the start of the week to circa $1745. Remember the precious metal breached $2,000 an ounce for the first time in August 2020. Gold in theory should perform well in this backdrop; falling real yields has historically been ideal for it, although we are not witnessing this at the moment. It’s rare that everything in a portfolio works at once; indeed the objective of a well-diversified portfolio is to ensure that assets perform in different ways to one another. Although gold has been lagging over recent weeks, more risky parts of the portfolio continue to perform well, with UK mid-cap equities advancing over the last week or so. UK M&A activity has been picking up, with international companies continuing to pick off UK assets. Meggitt was subject to a rival bid on Wednesday, with two US firms now battling it out for the company. While these events are great for the short-term share price, one may question the overall effects to the UK economy on a more medium-long term time horizon.
Like every football season the months ahead will be filled with success, surprise and disappointment with various management strategies constantly analysed by fans and pundits alike. In terms of investing, like all good managers we have an eye on the defence as well as the attack and are willing to tweak the strategy along the way to score as many goals as possible while trying our hardest not to concede.
With investing, your capital is at risk. The value of investments and the income from them can go down as well as up and you may not recover the amount of your initial investment. Certain investments carry a higher degree of risk than others and are, therefore, unsuitable for some investors.
The Week in Markets – 31 July – 6 August
When Raymond Jackson the inimitable cartoonist better known as JAK, who drew cartoons for the Evening Standard for 45 years, was away on holiday some lesser-known cartoonist would draw a cartoon for the newspaper and a line underneath would simply explain “JAK is on holiday.” So too, we are writing this piece informing you first of all “Simon Evan-Cook is on holiday.” He’s away next week too!
The summer months in investment markets are often viewed as quiet months, characterised by low trading volumes, as key decision-makers often take annual leave (there’s a theme developing here) and little portfolio activity takes place. This week has felt fairly uneventful in markets, despite China’s best efforts with continued regulatory pressure.
US ISM manufacturing data, released on Monday, highlighted that manufacturing activity may slow from its frantic pace earlier in the year. The slightly disappointing data had an immediate impact on the oil markets, where prices fell around 3%, driven by concerns that the pace of growth could be slowing. Despite this, US equity markets were not impacted and in fact by Tuesday had recovered to close at an all-time high.
A market that is a long way from its all-time high is China, where a series of increased regularity interventions has spooked investors. This week Tencent suffered, falling around 6% on Tuesday, as a state article described online gaming as “spiritual opium”. Given the stock’s exposure to online gaming, it was no surprise to see investors sell in droves on this news.
On domestic shores all eyes were on the Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee meeting on Thursday. Despite expecting inflation to reach 4% this year due to the strength of the economic recovery in the UK, interest rates were kept on hold, although they may need to be raised in 2022 to curb inflation. The Bank of England stated it expects UK GDP growth to reach 8% in 2021.
As is customary for the first Friday of the month, US non-farm payroll data will be published later today. It will be interesting to see the pace at which jobs have been added to the US economy over the last month. Hiring has been occurring at a healthy pace, and anecdotally there are stories of continued labour and skills shortages, leading to higher wages being offered to entice workers. Perhaps US employers would find it easier to recruit if they simply offered staff more holiday and that might mean less inflationary pressure.
If you are managing to get in a summer holiday, perhaps taking advantage of the further lifting of travel restrictions, stay safe and enjoy while we keep an eye on your portfolio.
With investing, your capital is at risk. The value of investments and the income from them can go down as well as up and you may not recover the amount of your initial investment. Certain investments carry a higher degree of risk than others and are, therefore, unsuitable for some investors.
Summer Surprises
For most investors focused on the U.K., Europe and/or the United States, July was far from an unattractive month in all but a minority of equity sectors. This pleasingly allowed a further building of year-to-date returns. Meanwhile bond market yields generally tightened further. Although fixed income markets remain on average dull performers in 2021, performance has improved in recent months.
Investing Is Not a Trivial Pursuit®
Americans, bored in their COVID-induced ‘bubbles,’ turned to board games for fun last year, boosting sales 300%. They rolled the dice, drew the cards, and buffed the skills of cooperation, problem solving, emotional intelligence, and reflective logic — the same competencies critical to successful investment strategies. So, we couldn’t help looking back nostalgically to our favourite games — and probably yours — as we look forward to crafting a sustainable investment game plan.
Stay Optimistic
The fifth month of 2021 will not go down as an important month for global investors. Most equity and bond market investors made some positive – but relatively modest – gains during May. And whilst COVID-19 vaccination progress across many countries has been notable over recent weeks, the general economic outlook across the U.K., United States and Europe has recently improved. Certainly underlying confidence for the rest of this year and into 2022 has improved over recent weeks.
Now It’s May, Do You Go Away?
April was another interesting month, with gains across almost all global stock markets led by the United States, but closely followed by the U.K. and Europe. Whilst the former two were significantly aided by continued COVID-19 vaccine progress and associated national reopening, Europe has started to make some progress too.
A different summer pause
Financial markets are always a three-dimensional jigsaw, with new pieces being added and deleted at whim every business day. But the signals from the last month have been especially difficult to discern. In contrast to the bounce back second quarter, July was a negative month for pan-European markets with the U.K. continuing to lag.